Balls, Sticks, & Stuff

New Digs!

2004-10-22T10:44:00.000-05:00

We've undergone a bit of a change here at Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, as we have moved to www.BallsSticksStuff.com (or in the case of technical difficulties, go to the site typepad directly). So, fix your bookmarks, and c'mon over and check out the new digs.

If you are the last one out, please turn off the lights and lock the door, I want to make sure I get my security deposit back on this place.

MLB on XM

2004-10-21T09:07:00.000-05:00

For several months now, I have been a subscriber to XM Radio, one of the two most prominent satelite radio services on the market (Sirius being the other). It's been a nifty little gadget to have, particularly on road trips. Not only is there a channel for just about any type of music, but there are also feeds of traditional media outlets as well such as Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, ESPN News, The Discovery Channel, etc.

Recently, Sirius and XM Radio have gotten into a bit of a war over obtaining the rights to sports programming. First, Sirius obtained the rights to broadcast NFL games. XM Radio made a weak counterpunch by obtaining the rights to PAC-10 and Big-10 football games. And today, it was announced that XM Radio made a much better effort in reaching a deal with Major League Baseball:

XM Satellite Radio will carry major league baseball games under a $650 million, 11-year deal...Starting with 2005 preseason play, XM will broadcast every major league game live. Some games will be broadcast in Spanish...XM also said its new Major League Baseball Channel will broadcast 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The channel will feature new content and rebroadcasts of classic baseball games.

The first question that comes to my mind is, "Will I be able to hear Harry Kalas for all 162?"

October Madness

2004-10-20T10:06:00.000-05:00

Drama is drama, and it can come in many forms. And because people are naturally drawn to drama - no matter what the source - the American League Championship Series between the Yankees and Red Sox is garnering attention from baseball fans and non-fans (most of the time) alike.

After falling behind three games to none in the best-of-seven series, the Red Sox have battled back to even the series score, winning in extra innings twice. Tuesday night's performance by the injured Curt Schilling was nothing other than epic. Hampered by a torn ankle tendon last week in Game 1, Schilling was limited to just a few innings of work after allowing the Yankees to take a sizable lead, and set into motion the events that would lead to Boston falling behind in the series and was discounted from returning in the series due to the injury. But after several days of experimentation with medications, wraps, and footware, and his teammates beginning the improbable comeback (no team has ever been down three games to none and forced a sixth game, much less a seventh) Schilling and the Red Sox proclaimed him as ready to start Game 6.

And so, on a cold, windy, rainy October night in the Bronx, with his ankle wrapped tight, medicated, and bleeding, Schilling took the mound against the Yankees and turned in a performance for the history books, holding the loaded Yankee lineup to just one run in seven innings. Bronson Arroyo, normally a starting pitcher, was brought in as Schilling's relief in the eighth inning, with the score and 4-1. The Yankees started to rally, closing the score to 4-2. To add to the drama, the score was momentarily closed to 4-3, the umpires conferred with each other, and Yankee Alex Rodriguez was judged to have committed interference while running to first. The play was wiped out, returning the score to 4-2. Kieth Foulke came in to pitch the ninth inning, his third relief appearance in as many days, and allowed two Yankees to reach base before finally striking out Tony Clark to end the game and force a Game 7.

What the world is seeing in this series is certain to be retold over and over again for years to come. Mike Lupica, writing in the New York Daily News:

They will play a baseball game tonight at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees and Red Sox will, that feels as big as any ever played, in a World Series or anyplace else. They play a Game 7 that was never supposed to happen, but does. They play Game 7 because the Red Sox won again last night, because they have come back from 0-3 down to tie the American League Championship Series. They play a Game 7, and if the Red Sox win it, if they come all the way back to beat this $194million Yankee team at Yankee Stadium and take the pennant from the Yankees, this ALCS will become one of the greatest sports stories of all time.

The Eagles Are Hotter Than Angelina Jolie

2004-10-19T06:34:00.000-05:00

The Eagles are hotter than Angelina Jolie. There, I said it. However, I haven't reached this conclusion without some thought first. A few days ago I walked to the end of my driveway and checked the mailbox. In it, I found bills, flyers, bills, newsletters, bills, offers to refinance my mortgage, and my mortgage bill. But I also found the November 2004 issue of Esquire magazine:

and the October 25, 2004 issue of ESPN the Magazine:

Naturally, I tossed the assorted junk mail aside and I looked back and forth at the cover of each magazine deciding which one to open first. I opened ESPN the Magazine and began to look for the cover story. That's right, I passed up Angelina Jolie for Donovan and T.O. (and because I began paging from the back of the magazine - doesn't everyone? - I stumbled across Dan Patrick's "Outakes" column featuring none other than Eagles safety Brian Dawkins). The fact that I chose Donovan and T.O. over Angelina Jolie can lead us to one of three conclusions:

I am 31 going on 91.
Somewhere deep down, Jolie scares
me (admit it, she scares you too).
The Eagles are hotter than
Angelina Jolie.

I decided that while #1 and #2 are very likely, #3 is undeniable. The Eagles, at 5-0 are one of only three teams that remain undefeated in the NFL. Donovan McNabb is third in the NFL in passer rating (103.5) and Terrell Owens is second in the NFL in touchdown catches (6). As a team, the Eagles are averaging 27.3 points/game (third in the NFL), plus 5 in turnover differential, and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has used 13 different players to record at least a half-sack. I could go on and on. What is even more fun to think about is that the Eagles next two games are against a mediocre Browns team and a Baltimore Ravens team that will be without Jamal "I Sell More Drugs Than Rite-Aid" Lewis.

Entering the season, my two greatest concerns about the Eagles were the depleted cornerback position and the ability of Terrell Owens to fit into the Eagles culture. So far, neither of those have been a concern. For the last several seasons, Johnson has had the luxury of blitzing quite often, knowing he had Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent locking down receivers man-to-man. So far, the formula hasn't changed, Johnson has been able to continue to blitz early and often due to the good play of Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown. As for Owens, all you have to do is read the ESPN the Magazine coverstory and know that has not been a problem:

Owens: Donovan has made me friendlier. Him being loose, free spirited. If you are around a person you respect, it rubs off. When I met Don in Hawaii a few years ago at the Pro Bowl, we took to each other. I can't put it into words to explain it. We just clicked.

McNabb (on Owens history of outspoken disruptive behavior): T.O. doesn't even talk in our huddle. He doesn't say much because he is so tired. We're running him around pretty good.

The Eagles are hotter than Angelina Jolie. Maybe if the folks at Esquire had used the Eagles Cheerleaders as their cover story, I might chosen their magazine first.

Do Not Adjust Your Monitor

2004-10-19T06:17:00.000-05:00

As I watched all seventeen hours of Game 5 of the ALCS in my study/office/second guest bedroom, I realized that the green of the weblog was exactly the same color as the green in the room. I had two choices: (1) leave the room or (2) change the blog layout. Since leaving the room was not an option (c'mon Big Papi!) I decided to tweak the ol' blog. Hopefully this is a cleaner look and a bit easier to read. Feedback is always welcome, so if you have any comments or suggestions, feel free to sound off.

Speaking of feedback, the email address for Balls, Sticks, & Stuff has changed from a Yahoo account to a Gmail account. I've been using Gmail for a couple of weeks now and I highly recommend it. If you would like an invite, drop me an email.

Again, speaking of feedback, (read this sentence in your cheesiest DJ voice): J. Michael Weitzel of Virginville has a request for something other than the Badlees on the sidebar. I'll leave the Badlees up there, because no one outside of Pennsyltuckey has any idea who they are, but I'll add a local musician from the Richmond area, Jason Mraz, who has described his music as being similar to another Virginia fave, Brunswick stew. It's impossible not to like his stuff, if you haven't already obtained one of his CD's, do so now.

Crazy High Standards

2004-10-15T15:44:00.000-05:00

Thursday, the Phillies continued the marathon of manager interviews by bringing in Grady Little for a little chat. And I phrase it that way - "for a little chat" -because it is informal, laid back, and folksy, just as Grady Little's personality has been described. I even typed it with a drawl. By all accounts, Little used his folksy charm to endear the Phillies, the media, and the phans by making self-deprecating jokes about his home-life and talking about the often forgotten humanity of professional baseball players. That Grady, ain't he a good fella?

I'm sure Grady Little is a good man, a good person. And as anyone who has read this weblog (both of you) before knows that I think creating an atmosphere that allows the players to relax is important. And I also agree with those that say, including Little himself, that a manager shouldn't be judged by a single decision he made in one single game. But Little's series of gaffes in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS wasn't what got him into trouble with Theo Epstein and the rest of the Red Sox management. What got him into trouble was the lack of preparation he displayed all season long. The gaffes of Game 7 were merely a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself. An anonymous reader of Balls, Stick, & Stuff sent an article from the Eagle-Tribune (a smalltown paper in Massachusetts) by John Tomase from October 28, 2003, detailing the behind the scenes rationale for the Little firing. Anyone who thinks Grady Little makes an excellent candidate for Manager of the 2005 Phillies should read it.

I might be a tad crazy, but I believe a good manager should be able to both create an atmosphere conducive to winning and prepare before a game for the decisions he will be faced with as the game progresses. I know, I know, that's crazy talk.

The Leader in the Clubhouse

2004-10-14T12:43:00.000-05:00

There is an expression often used at golf tournaments - "the leader in the clubhouse." Technically, the first player to finish can be called the leader in the clubhouse, but the expression is usually reserved until someone finishes with a score that could realistically be considered as good enough to win after the remaining players on the course have finished.

After just two candidates have been interviewed for the job of Manager of the 2005 Phillies, it is realistic to consider that Charlie Manuel will grab the title. Nearly all of the other candidtates lack the gravitas to manage a team that could sport t-shirts in spring training imprinted with "Now Could be the Last Time But Let's Try and Relax Anyway". Don Baylor, Buddy Bell, and Grady Little do not have a history of winning as managers (by the way, is it a coincidence that both Bell and Baylor have been managers at Coors Field, another stadium considered to be a launching pad? I hope not, because CBP is not Coors Lite). As was reinforced on Swing and a Miss, the Phillies organization can not afford to have the manager become the story yet again in 2005.

The only two managerial candidates (that we know about, according to PhilliesNation.com, Ed Wade has requested permission to speak to someone on the playoff teams...Joe Maddon?) that have strong track records are Charlie Manuel and Jim Fregosi. Fregosi, however, does not make sense as a final choice because of his sometimes gruff demeanor. Behavior such as this could also make the manager the story, again, something the organization does not want to repeat in 2005.
By process of elimination, this leaves Manuel. Yes, he is Jim Thome's guy, but it goes further than that, because by reading between the lines, the Phillies were quite impressed by the presentation Manuel gave to begin the interview, complete with handouts, charts, and graphs ("as you can see here by looking at these two lines, a pitching staff's ERA is directly correlated to the number of mini-tantrums thrown by a team's manager" and "the research seems to show that Leo Mazzone has never been punched out by a relief pitcher, which is indicative of a good rapport with the staff"...sorry, I had a Scrubs-like daydream there). Manuel also seems to be under the impression that he would enjoy managing the Phillies. Enjoying your work and not trying to drink away the pain also seems to be a characteristic that would make Manuel a good fit.

Phans, we have a Leader In The Clubhouse (insert golf clap here).

Phillies Net Win Shares Value

2004-10-13T14:40:00.000-05:00

Curious to know which Phillie was the biggest drain on the team's payroll? Interested to know which Phillie was the best bargain Ed Wade managed to obtain? If so, the folks at The Hardball Times have developed a tool called the Net Win Shares Value Calculator. According to THT:

Net Win Shares Value is an estimate of how much a player was worth, given his contribution to the team's wins and the conditions under which he signed his contract (free agent, arbitration, etc.). A positive amount means he contributed more value (performance per dollar paid) than the average player in his category, and a negative amount indicates that he delivered below-average value for his contract.

The authors plan on publishing their data in the The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual in a few weeks, but who has the patience to wait a couple of weeks?

Here are the "particulars", copied from the THT output (salary data from Baseball/Sports Weekly/USA Today and ESPN.com...players are listed in order of overall WS):

Bobby Abreu's Net Win Share Value is $ 8,894,744
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 37
Win Shares Above Replacement: 22.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 12
Salary: $ 10,600,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 19,494,744

Jimmy Rollins's Net Win Share Value is $ 6,945,044
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 25
Win Shares Above Replacement: 10.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 2,425,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 9,370,044

Jim Thome's Net Win Share Value is $ -3,429,417
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 22
Win Shares Above Replacement: 10.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 14
Salary: $ 12,166,667
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 8,737,250

David Bell's Net Win Share Value is $ 2,649,800
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 20
Win Shares Above Replacement: 8.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 5
Salary: $ 4,400,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 7,049,800

Placido Polanco's Net Win Share Value is $ 1,201,419
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 17
Win Shares Above Replacement: 5.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 4
Salary: $ 3,950,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 5,151,419

Pat Burrell's Net Win Share Value is $ -153,238
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 15
Win Shares Above Replacement: 4.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 5
Salary: $ 4,250,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 4,096,763

Jason Michaels's Net Win Share Value is $ 3,550,831
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 11
Win Shares Above Replacement: 4.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 335,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 3,885,831

Ryan Madson's Net Win Share Value is $ 5,062,350
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 9
Win Shares Above Replacement: 6.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 300,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 5,362,350

Mike Lieberthal's Net Win Share Value is $ -8,465,588
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 9
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 9
Salary: $ 7,500,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -965,588

Billy Wagner's Net Win Share Value is $ -4,114,169
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 8
Win Shares Above Replacement: 4.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 9
Salary: $ 8,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 3,885,831

Chase Utley's Net Win Share Value is $ 2,420,244
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 8
Win Shares Above Replacement: 2.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): -0
Salary: $ 200,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 2,620,244

Eric Milton's Net Win Share Value is $ -8,278,138
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 8
Win Shares Above Replacement: 0.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 10
Salary: $ 9,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 721,863

Rheal Cormier's Net Win Share Value is $ -590,688
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 7
Win Shares Above Replacement: 2.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 3,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 2,409,313

Tim Worrell's Net Win Share Value is $ -973,481
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 7
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 2,750,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,776,519

Randy Wolf's Net Win Share Value is $ -1,965,688
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 7
Win Shares Above Replacement: 2.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 5
Salary: $ 4,375,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 2,409,313

Marlon Byrd's Net Win Share Value is $ -1,320,588
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 6
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 355,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -965,588

Corey Lidle's Net Win Share Value is $ 276,519
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 1,500,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,776,519

Todd Pratt's Net Win Share Value is $ 268,725
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 875,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,143,725

Tomas Perez's Net Win Share Value is $ -239,069
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: 0.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 750,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 510,931

Vicente Padilla's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,721,863
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: -0.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 2,600,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -121,863

Kevin Millwood's Net Win Share Value is $ -11,754,656
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 13
Salary: $ 11,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -754,656

Brett Myers's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,593,175
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 3
Win Shares Above Replacement: -3.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 362,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -2,231,175

Felix Rodriguez's Net Win Share Value is $ 354,656
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 2
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 1,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,354,656

Gavin Floyd's Net Win Share Value is $ 1,254,656
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 2
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): -0
Salary: $ 100,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,354,656

Amaury Telemaco's Net Win Share Value is $ -435,931
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 2
Win Shares Above Replacement: -0.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 525,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 89,069

Ryan Howard's Net Win Share Value is $ 210,931
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: 0.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 300,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 510,931

Todd Jones's Net Win Share Value is $ -271,863
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: -0.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): -0
Salary: $ 150,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -121,863

Roberto Hernandez's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,137,450
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: -2.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 750,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -1,387,450

Doug Glanville's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,570,244
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: -2.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 550,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -2,020,244

Paul Abbott's Net Win Share Value is $ -1,565,588
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 0
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 600,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -965,588

Fine Print: The salaries of Lidle, Utley, Rodriguez, Jones, and Floyd were prorated to reflect the actual time spent on the Phillies roster. Player values were compared to "all contracts" so as to compare to the market as a whole, rather than just against other free agents or arbitration eligible players. Obviously some players have been left out, but all of the regulars and semi-regulars are here, and I do have a day job that comes first and a golf game that comes second (pretty much).

I think the trend here is that the hitters, in general, performed very well and the pitchers underperformed in relation to market value. Best bargain? Despite having one the largest salaries on the team, Bobby Abreu was still the best bargain. Kevin Millwood, on the other hand, was a colossal waste of team resources.

Does anyone know the janitor at the Phillies' Clearwater facility? I'd like to have him slip this onto the desk of Ed Wade.

How the Yankees/Red Sox Rivalry Hurt the Phillies

2004-10-13T08:33:00.000-05:00

As the sports world turns its attention to the storied Red Sox/Yankees rivalry as it renews itself in the form of the American League Championship Series, Phans should take a moment to consider how the rivalry has hurt the Phillies.

According to the book Chasing Steinbrenner: Pursuing the Pennant in Boston and Toronto by Rob Bradford, the Atlanta Braves offered Kevin Millwood to both the Yankees and Red Sox prior to the 2003 season. However, at the time, the Yankees and Sox were engaged in a bidding war over the then recent Cuban defector Jose Contreras. Both teams decided to concentrate on Contreras and the Phillies were eventually offered Millwood. They accepted in return for catching prospect Johnny Estrada, and in the two seasons the Phillies have had Millwood, he has put up fourth-starter-type ERA's while taking home first-starter-type money.

There is no doubt that both the Yankees and Red Sox felt that Contreras would become an excellent pitcher (they were wrong), but the rivalry between the two teams also fueled the bidding war as neither team wanted to let the other team sign Contreras. Because the Yankees and Red Sox were too busy trying to out-do each other, the Phillies were able to land Millwood. At the time, nearly everyone who followed baseball thought the Phillies got the better end of the deal from the Braves. The conventional wisdom was that the Phillies had gotten a potential ace for only a slightly-old-for-a-prospect catcher.

As it turns out, Millwood's poor performance and injuries helped to bring down the Phillies hopes of a playoff berth in 2003 and 2004. Johnny Estrada on the other hand, was a 2004 All-Star and has become one of the better catchers in the league. Had either the Yankees or Red Sox been willing to take their eyes off of Contreras to seriously look at Millwood they may have accepted the trade offer (the Braves wanted Casey Fossum from the Sox, who the Sox eventually traded to Arizona for phormer Phillie Curt Schilling). And had that happened the Phillies would still have Estrada to take over for the rapidly aging Mike Lieberthal, and may have been able to use the eight-digit salary they have paid Millwood for the last two seasons on a free agent or two that may (or may not) have served the Phillies cause better.

Hindsight is certainly 20/20, but as we watch the ALCS and read about the Phillies interviewing managerial candidates, phans should consider if there own team is cursed in a similar manner as the Red Sox. Because the Yankees were able to acquire Babe Ruth in 1918 the Red Sox have the Curse of the Bambino, and because the Yankees and Red Sox were obsessed with Jose Contreras, Phillies phans have to suffer from the Curse of the Cuban.

League Championship Series Predictions

2004-10-12T06:07:00.000-05:00

I'm not sure if I should pat myself on the back for the vision to get two of the four divisional series outcomes correct or just attribute my success rate to chance. Whatever the effect, I'm willing to step up to the tee for the Balls, Sticks, & Stuff Official League Championship Series Predictions:

Houston Astros - St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction - Cardinals win in six.
The Logic - The Cardinals have been both mashing and playing great team baseball all year, and have had a few extra days to get their pitching staff lined-up for the series, whereas Houston will have to put things together on the fly after the Braves took them to a game 5. Also, I am predicting a similar emotional let-down for the Astros to what I predicted for them entering the playoffs in the first place.
Best Reason to Watch - Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens will test the adage "good pitching beats good hitting" when they try to navigate their way through Walt Jocketty's fantasy baseball lineup.

Boston Red Sox - New York Yankees
Prediction - Yankees win in seven.
The Logic - The Sox have better pitching, better offense, possibly a better defense, and are definitely more fun to watch. But it is still the Yankees and the Red Sox. You can say the Red Sox will find a way to lose or the Yankees will find a way to win, but at any rate, those are two reasons why the Yankees will advance.
Best Reason to Watch - Take your pick from The Curse, The Don Zimmer Incident, The Varitek vs. A-Rod Incident ("we don't throw at .260 hitters"), Petey after 100 pitches, Yogi-isms, Manny-isms, "Jeter Swallows" bumper stickers, Teddy Ballgame's frozen head, Mickey Mantle's swollen liver, Monument Park, Yawkey Way, Big Stein, and the Monstah.

Doooooks!

2004-10-11T20:08:00.000-05:00

Go vote for the Duke Dog in the Capital One Bowl Mascot Challenge!

Mind Over Matters

2004-10-11T14:47:00.000-05:00

As a yoot (coalspeak for "youth") I was a fan of all of the Philadelphia professional sports teams. Living in the South prevents me from appreciating hockey (an ice storm shuts Richmond down for a week, so they aren't about to watch a game played on ice) so the Flyers are off my radar. As for the 76ers, I lost interest when Charles Barkley left, and like most white suburban males in their early 30's, I now find the entire NBA to be unwatchable.

That leaves the Philadelphia Eagles and Phillies, all of my eggs being in two baskets. The Eagles have enjoyed a high (higher but not the highest) degree of success for the last few years. And, in the grand scheme of things, if you look at the entire history of the Phillies, the last four season have been relatively good as well (simply because over the last four years they won more games than they lost). But yet my attitude towards these two teams could not be more different.

For instance, recent articles in the Philly papers illicit two completely different reactions in my head. In the Sunday edition of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Bob Brookover details the Eagles' long-term plans for securing Brian Westbrook. After I had finished the article, I came away thinking the same thing I usually do after reading an article that contains the words "Andy Reid": Wow, these guys really have it together, they really seem like they know what they are doing, I'm sure they will make the right decisions. After all, in this era of the NFL, to have been to the NFC Championship game three years in a row and to be favored to do so for a fourth time and still have the third most room under the salary cap of any NFL team, you have to be reaching genius proportions. Not only are the Eagles extremely competitive this year, but I expect them to be so for several more years at least. The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Switch gears. The Phillies. If it was any other team in any other city with any other history, the fan base - including me - would be encouraged. Seriously, looking at just the numbers, both statistically and financially - mentally erase the Phillies masthead and the players' names on whatever website you consult - and you would think the team is headed in the right direction. You would see several good players signed to large but manageable long-term contracts. You would see some help in the farm system on the way to help offset the large contracts. You would also see a new ballpark in a large northeast city with the potential to be a consistent and fruitful revenue stream for years to come. Now, add the "Phillies" to the mental image I just described and immediately, you start to wonder if it will be possible to become a champion. My head says, "Keep things in perspective, they are on the right track." On the other hand, my heart says a lot of four letter words.

So, as the Eagles ponder what to do with players like Brian Westbrook, I sit back just enjoy every Sunday during the season. And as the Phillies search for a manager, I contemplate sending letters pleading for logic to win out over Grady Little and Don Baylor. My head says it will, but my heart...

Here Comes the Pendulum

2004-10-08T13:17:00.000-05:00

OK, OK, enough with the post mortem's (actually I do have one more little nugget, which I haven't seen anywhere else - according to the most recent issue of Sports/Baseball Weekly, there was an incident at some point this summer when Tim Worrell punched Joe Kerrigan, has anyone else heard this?) let's look to the phuture, because thankfully, the Phillies are. Next week, the Phillies are expected to interview Don Baylor, Charlie Manuel, and Grady Little. Rumors regarding other people have been mentioned, but let's take a look at the three that will definitely be interviewed.

Don Baylor
The Resume: Baylor is often mentioned as a candidate for open managerial positions around baseball, but is often passed over. Baylor does have previous managerial experience, taking the 1995 Rockies to the playoffs (something of an accomplishment) and several less than memorable years at the helm of the Cubs, back before they cared about winning.
The B.S. & S. Take: In sports, coaches/managers are constantly being recycled, and the large number of times it happens has always perplexed me. Baylor has proven to be a fine hitting coach, but little more. Pass.

Grady Little
The Resume: Managed the Red Sox from 2002-2003, surpassing 90 wins each year. The Sox reached the wild card in 2003 and I think we all know how that ended.
The B.S. & S. Take: When I first heard of the possibility of Grady Little managing the Phillies, I was phlabbergasted:

I realize the Pendulum of Managerial Style at the Phillies is swinging towards a laid-back manager, but isn't that a bit too far? This guy was so lethargic he let Pedro talk him into staying in one of the most important games in the team's history after he had just let 5 of 7 batters reach base and was clearly fatigued.

The way their team is playing, the Red Sox Nation may survive Grady Little. Asking Phans to survive even the announcement of the hiring of Grady Little after being asked to survive this season is way too much to ask.

I'm sure Grady Little is a fine man, and he is probably even an above average manager, and I honestly believe he should be given a second chance - just not with my team, let him prove himself somewhere else. Pass.

Charlie Manuel
The Resume: Randy Miller does a good job of "synopsisizing" Charlie Manuel's lengthy career in baseball in PhillyBurbs.com, but the strongest points are that he managed the Indians to a division title in 2001 and he has a high comfort level with Jim Thome.
The B.S. & S. Take: Yes, Manuel is technically another managerial retread, but he was fired after his team was gutted of talent (something else I have never understood in sports - how can a good manager suddenly become a bad one after all of his talent is taken away? Phil Jackson feared this more than anyone). Of the three candidates that will be interviewed next week, Manuel would get the Official Balls, Sticks, & Stuff Seal of Approval, but I wouldn't mind if the Phillies continued to look around with the idea of coming back to him later.

Bowa Postmortem Ad Pukem

2004-10-06T14:36:00.000-05:00

"Bowa Fires Back"...
...is the headline in today's Philadelphia Inquirer. Todd Zolecki summarizes the interview L-Bo gave to WCAU-TV (Channel 10), and so here is an excerpt of the excerpt:

Larry Bowa said the Phillies deceived him.

Bowa, fired Saturday after nearly four seasons as Phillies manager, said in an interview with WCAU-TV (Channel 10) yesterday that he believes the Phillies had made up their minds to fire him before the season started, if they failed to make the postseason.

"No matter who was available, who was unavailable, who had good years, who had bad years, I think they made a decision that if they don't get to the playoffs, they are going to make a change," Bowa said.

"The other thing was at the end of August when a certain writer had something in there that I definitely wasn't coming back. I literally talked to [general manager] Ed [Wade] and he told me they hadn't made up their mind. And from that day on, we went 21-9, so I don't know what changed from that day except we played real good for the last 30 games."

Is that so wrong? To make up your mind that your manager gets one more try to get a team to the post-season? If Bowa is right - we don't know for a fact that Phillies brass had this attitude entering the season - then the Phillies probably should have told him so entering the season. The case can be made that the Phillies management did not handle the firing well (though it is hard to be sure because only two people, Wade and Bowa know 100% of the information), but every day, all across America, employees are given one more chance by their employers.

No matter where you come down on the Bowa-issue, you probably can't quabble with the other statements quoted by Zolecki. And, Larry (I'm tired of typing Bowa) even said something I couldn't agree with more:

"If they want to make a change and think they can get where they want to go, that's fine. That happens in baseball all the time. The only thing I say is if you're going to make a change, you better win the division next year because we came in second. We came in second, and if you are going to make a change, you better take the next step and win the division."

Even More Time of the 'Equal' Variety
In yesterday's post, I referred to Perpetual Off Night, written by someone on the "Bowa Was Framed" side of the arguement. Today, he responds.

Bowa Postmortem Ad Naseum

2004-10-05T14:07:00.000-05:00

A Hollow Celebration
Initially, when I heard on ESPN via XM Radio the news about Larry Bowa and the Phillies officially parting company on Saturday, I was elated. I called my brother. Then, I decided I was going to have a minor celebration. I stopped and bought a cigar. I stopped and bought a Philly-style cheesesteak (in the South, you have to add "style" because it isn't really a genuine Philly cheesesteak, though the large influx of Yankees such as myself to the Old Dominion has certainly helped the cause). When I got home, I took the cigar, the cheesesteak, a glass of Kentucky distilled spirits, and our laptop out to the deck to watch the next to last game of the season on MLB.tv in the cool autumn evening.

Ironically though, just like the Phillies season never gained any momentum, neither did my own little impromptu celebration . Maybe it was the fact that the cheesesteak was a bit chewy. Maybe it was the fact that I was saddled with the Marlins broadcast feed on MLB.tv, or maybe it was the fact that I have no idea what to look for in a cigar. But I think what really retarded my festivities was the fact that it finally sank in what the firing of Bowa represented. It means another lost opportunity, another instance where the Phillies couldn't get the job done. It wasn't supposed to happen this way. When Bowa was hired several years ago, I thought it was a good move. Finally, I thought, the Phillies are serious about winning. And what is really disappointing is that the team has been serious about winning now for three or four years, and they are seemingly no closer to reaching the World Series than they were before they got serious.

Misguided Phans
Living outside of the Philadelphia area, it is difficult for me to get my finger on the pulse of Joe Phan. So when I read statements from Jayson Stark (referring to the Phillies collapse during August resulting in a 1-9 homestand) such as this...

Larry Bowa was such a popular guy in a town that can't forget the only World Series its team ever won, the GM (Ed Wade) and the team president (David Montgomery) couldn't bring themselves to pull that particular trigger. Not yet.

...I have to believe he doesn't have his finger on the pulse of Joe Phan either, secluded from the world in an ivory tower in Bristol, CT. Look at the results compared to the payroll, there is no way someone can look at that team and realize Bowa isn't a big part of the problem, after all:

What matters is that Bowa's intensity never translated into motivation for the players. There was a disconnect there from the beginning. Really, it's the difference between intensity with a snarl and intensity with a scowl. Bowa's was and is the latter.

The disconnect showed itself in one of the few constants during Bowa's tenure. Players took turns going into profound, inexplicable slumps. You can't blame Bowa for Pat Burrell's funks, or Marlon Byrd's or Mike Lieberthal's or Brett Myers' - but you start to wonder when it keeps happening.

Maybe there is something wrong with the environment. Maybe the atmosphere isn't what it should be. All of these players have demonstrated they have the physical ability. Slumps like these are mental blocks. They happen. But they shouldn't happen over and over to different players on the same team. ( Phil Sheridan, Phila. Inq., 10/3/2004 )

If I can see that when I watch a game on MLB.tv and read it between the lines on Philly.com day in day out, surely the good people in Phillies Land can see that too. But apparently not, because according to reports, there were instances of the sell-out crowds this weekend at Citizens Bank Park chanting, "We Want Bowa" and "Fire Wade". Are they drinking the Bowa-flavored Kool-Aid (probably colored flaming red) so much that they truly believe that the bad luck of injuries cost the manager his job? Have they stopped to consider that the 2004 Phillies were in trouble long before the injuries began to mount? Did the Astros and Braves let injuries stop them from making the playoffs? I think it is also worth considering that it is possible that Kerrigan and Bowa somehow contributed to the injuries through improper use of the pitching staff or conditioning of the entire team (admittedly, impossible to prove).

I can understand the phans preferring to see Ed Wade fired as well (though for now, I disagree), but to want Bowa's job to be preserved means that the phans are more concerned with having a manager that supposedly reflects the city's personality than with having a winning team. Tom Durso at Shallow Center often describes the Phillies as an organization that can't get out of its own way - I'm beginning to wonder if the fan base isn't in a similar state of mind/denial.

Equal Time
To read the opinions of a phan who seems to take views 180 degrees from mine, check out Perpetual Off Night here and here.

Heir Unapparent
Many names have been dropped by pundits for the 2005 Phillies manager - Davey Johnson, Jimy Williams, Cito Gaston, Jim Fregosi, Charlie Manuel, Grady Little, Ken Macha - and to my knowledge, none have been quoted expressing an interest in managing the Phillies next year. But I think it is safe to say that whoever becomes the manager, he will have a personality opposite of Larry Bowa. Despite Ed Wade's insistence that this will not necessarily be the case, expect someone calm, cool, and collected with a history of winning.

Divisional Series Predictions

2004-10-04T09:57:00.000-05:00

The dust has finally settled, and the playoffs have been seeded. Without further ado, the Balls, Sticks, & Stuff Official Divisional Series Predictions:

Minnesota Twins - New York Yankees
Prediction: Twins win in 5 games.
The Logic: The conventional wisdom for most of the season has been that the Yankees do not have the starting pitching to get them deep into the playoffs. Just as there is often a reason stereotypes are true, there are often reasons why conventional wisdom is right, and the Yankees simply do not have the pitching to get by the Twins. However I do think it will be a close series because the Yankees do know how to win and will therefore make it close, but in the end, the Twins will prevail.
Best Reason to Watch: Johan Santana has been on a tear in the second half of the season, setting a Twins record for most strikeouts in a season averaging 10.46 K's per 9 IP.

Boston Red Sox - Anaheim Angels
Prediction: Red Sox win in 5 games.
The Logic: Again, it comes down to starting pitching. Curt Schilling is a Cy Young favorite and a big-game pitcher. As is Pedro Martinez. The Angels on the other hand have a pitching staff that has been up and down all year and the Red Sox can flat out rake. Another point to consider is that the Angels are coming off an extremely tight division race with the A's and may find it difficult to focus after such an emotional high. The only reason I think this will go 5 games is that the Red Sox always find a way to make a series tighter than it should be.
Best Reason to Watch: Tim Wakefield pitching against Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad the Impaler has never seen a pitch he doesn't like and Wakefield's knuckleball will probably look like a floating beachball to him. If Wakefield's knuckleball is "on" when they face off, we could see some crazy swings with unpredictable results. Good stuff.

Los Angeles Dodgers - St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Cards in 4.
The Logic: The old adage is that good pitching beats good hitting, but in this case it is going to be great hitting beating decent pitching. The Dodgers staff has a 5.09 ERA against St. Louis this year.
Best Reason to Watch: Sit back and admire the balanced hitting, pitching, and defense the Cardinals bring to the table. It's hard to find a weakness on this team.

Houston Astros - Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Braves in 4.
The Logic: I considered leaving this prediction to a coin flip. This series pretty evenly matched, and the two teams are similar in that both were considered to be non-contenders at one point or another during the season, both have good but not great lineups, and both have great closers that are supported by good starters and mediocre set-up men. In the end I settle on the Braves because Bobby Cox has the Braves playing as a team, the Astros could suffer a similar emotional let down to the one I predicted above for the Angels, and the Braves have had the Astros number in several recent playoff series.
Best Reason to Watch: It may not be the best reason to watch, but the matchup between the slightly old Roger Clemens and the definitely old Julio Franco should be quite interesting. Clemens loves to come inside on batters and Franco almost exclusively tries to hit pitches to right field.

On the Blog Circuit

2004-10-01T15:16:00.000-05:00

B.S. & S. has received several compliments lately via email and posts on other blogs. Additionally, the hit counter continues to grow (more hits than Willie Mays). To those of you who have paid me such compliments, particularly Iain, Brian, Tom, and Tom - thank you very much, it's always good to know that someone is out there reading and enjoying. Your blogs are all a great influence on B.S. & S. To those of you who have posted comments, I appreciate your input, and to those of you who have stealthily stopped by without posting a comment or sending an email - thank you and y'all come back now, hear?

If you have been kind enough to link to me, I appreciate it. I continue to update the Balls, Sticks, & Stuff links page and the sidebar, so if you've linked to me and I haven't returned the favor, feel free to send me an email.

Speaking of Iain (an English baseball fan living in France who appreciates a good double play as much as I do) at The Baseball Desert, he is so excited about the upcoming playoffs he is planning on getting up at 2 AM every night to watch on MLB.tv, just as he did last year. Now that is certainly giving it 110%. Way to hustle, Iain, you're getting your uniform dirty.

In other blog news, Brad Dowdy of No Pepper fame has rekindled his golf blog, Making the Cut. I can't help but be impressed with a guy who is obsessed with both baseball and golf. If he is incredibly smart and good looking, he just may be my long lost twin.

Factoring in the Park Factor

2004-09-30T17:04:00.000-05:00

Aaron Gleeman, writing on The Hardball Times about ESPN.com's Park Factor, discusses some of the interesting trends regarding several stadiums around Major League Baseball, including among others the home parks of the Twins, Red Sox, Mariners, and of course Rockies. However, Gleeman does not mention anything about the Phillies new park for 2004, Citizens Bank Park. "Why would he do that?", one might ask, "hasn't the 'Money Pit' been a bandbox all year? Harold Reynolds says so every night on Baseball Tonight." In response to that question, I would say, "Because CBP has been average."

That's right, average. ESPN.com's Park Factor is essentially a ratio that compares the number of runs scored per game at home and the number of runs scored per game on the road. A ratio over 1.000 means a park is hitter-friendly, and then of course a ratio of less than 1.000 means a park is pitcher friendly. To add a little context, the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, Coors Launching Pad, has a ratio of 1.404. The most pitcher-friendly park is the cavernous ballpark in Seattle with a ratio of 0.826. And of the thirty parks in Major League baseball, Citizens Bank Park ranks 13th with a ratio of 1.024, nearly neutral. Now, go get your beverage of choice, comeback, and read that sentence again: Citizens Bank Park ranks 13th with a ratio of 1.024, nearly neutral to pitchers and hitters.

But should we be surprised by this? Nearly two months ago, at the height of the FenceGate Scandal when we learned that the fences of CBP were mysteriously closer to homeplate than we thought, I had this to say:

This is bothersome to me. It doesn't bother me because I feel like it is a conspiracy by Phillies ownership to inflate homerun numbers in order to fill seats, which will in turn fill their coffers with money. And it doesn't bother me because Pennsylvania taxpayers (I know a few) got a smaller ballpark than they thought they were getting with their tax dollars. It bothers me because it doesn't give Jim Thome and the other Phillies batters credit for having some serious pop. All season long, we have had to listen to the ESPN Baseball Tonight crew mock every homerun hit at CBP because the place is a bandbox. One night Harold Reynolds called the new stadium "a joke" about four times during that night's Phillies highlight reel. Has anyone ever thought to consider that maybe there are a lot of homeruns hit at CBP because the team that plays half of their games there hit their fair share of homeruns?

As the Philadelphia Inquirer article that exposed the "scandal" points out, Phillies pitchers have a better ERA on the road than at home and Phillies batters average just 0.4 homeruns per game higher at home than on the road. Jim Thome, who leads the majors in homeruns has hit nearly an identical number at home (16) as he has on the road (15) in nearly an identical amount of at-bats (161 AB's at home, 159 AB's on the road). The Phillies second leading homerun hitter, Bobby Abreu, has 10 homeruns at home and 10 home runs away from home.

Yes, the Phillies have hit a lot of homeruns so far this year but maybe, just maybe, it is because they have some good homerun hitters.

And a quick check of the numbers reveals that little has changed. Jim Thome for instance, now has more homeruns away from CBP (23) than he does at home (19), and the Phillies still have a higher ERA on the road (4.61) than at home (4.35).

In the end, it doesn't really matter that the nightly subjective observations have misled (to use the current political vernacular) phans and media commentators alike. But what really, really, really matters is the fact that it has misled the Phillies' pitchers. All season long, we have heard post-game comments such as "a lead is never safe in this park" and "we have to learn how to pitch here". And so, it is very easy to attribute the underperformance of the staff to attitude - being afraid of the gopher ball every time they take the mound.

The next logical question would be, if a non-rocket scientist phan like myself can quickly see that the ballpark is neutral, why hasn't the Phillies leadership - veteran players, coaches, and front office - tried to change that attitude among the pitchers? To be fair, if you isolate the Park Factor for just homeruns, CBP does rank among the most hitter-friendly parks, and homeruns stand out in one's memory more than singles (especially if you are the one that gave up the homers), but isn't that all the more reason for leadership to set the pitchers straight? And shouldn't the front office attempt to acquire high groundball percentage pitchers to negate the homers? Or, can't Joe Kerrigan or Larry Bowa get the pitchers to keep the ball down in the strike zone?

I realize that a lot of this is a lot to ask, attitudes, mechanics, and rosters can't be changed overnight, but I don't think it is a lot to ask for the Phillies leadership to make it known that Citizen's Bank Park is not a bandbox. Not only will it help with the pitchers on the staff, but it will help in the effort to recruit free agents and it will help the development of pitchers in the minors if they know they are not going to be pitching in Coors Lite Field when they grow up.

Oh, and by the way, let's not let the Phillies hitters in on any of this. Or opposing pitchers.

Update [5/16/05]: It appears as if many people are Googling or Yahooing "Park Factor" (or something similar) and turning up this post. If you'd like to read more on my thoughts about the Phillies or baseball in general, go to the new and improved Balls, Sticks, & Stuff at www.ballssticksstuff.com. See you there!

Baseball and Sim City

2004-09-29T14:22:00.000-05:00

Several days ago, Michael Wilbon took time out from his daily screaming match with Tony Kornheiser to write a great column in the Washington Post, "A Stadium Grows, a City will Blossom". The article extols the virtues of building sports (slash entertainment) complexes in economically depressed urban areas, in particular what it will mean to Washington, DC to have a major league baseball in town:

...the existence of baseball means a minimum of 81 nights of attracting 25,000 hungry, thirsty people, the great majority of them with means.

I love the economists whose primary arguments against new arenas and stadiums is that such construction doesn't bring permanent and full-time jobs. Of course the construction doesn't bring that, nor do the stadiums themselves. But try to tell the folks in Detroit that the new Ford Field, home to the NFL Lions, hasn't been the centerpiece of radical economic development taking place in downtown Detroit. Stadiums for the Browns and Indians, plus the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, revitalized Cleveland's center city financially, culturally and psychologically. All those restaurants and bars and nightspots don't employ people permanently? Please. For anybody who has lived here 10 years or more, it's impossible not to walk through the area near MCI, particularly on an event night, and not see the wisdom of bringing 15,000 people or more to a central gathering place.

However, not everyone is impressed by the progress other cities have made using sports/entertainment complexes. Sally Jenkins, questioning the wisdom of financing the stadium deal with ticket taxes and concession taxes, wrote in Saturday's Washington Post:

Who will pay if the team is on a losing streak, and no one is buying beers? Who will pay when attendance sinks after the first season and that concession tax doesn't yield $10 million toward servicing the debt but instead yields only $4 million?

Interestingly, Jenkins also pointed to the same cities and complexes that Wilbon pointed to as reasoning against bringing the/les/los Expos to Washington, DC:

If you want hard evidence of what stadiums can do for a city, look no farther than Cleveland, which has new stadiums for the Indians and the Browns as well as the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame -- and was just named the poorest city in the country.

My response to Jenkins would be, "Maybe the way you should look at it is 'imagine how poor Cleveland would be without the stadiums and the Rock Hall of Fame." Obviously I am biased, I enjoy sports, particularly baseball, and when I visit Washington, DC several times a year I always enjoy it. Besides that, I am an ear doc, not an economist like Andrew Zimbalist (quoted by Jenkins) who has studied these effects extensively, but no one can convince me that day after day in the summer, when thousands of people venture into downtown Washington to see the "hometown nine", they won't leave just a little bit of money in the local economy. And when that money is left in the economy, it will be taxed, and when it gets taxed it will create even more money for things like schools, trains, and police, the things that Jenkins would rather spend the 400 million stadium dollars on. Two old adages come to mind: (1) "You've got to spend money to make money." and (2) "A rising tide lifts all boats." As a matter of fact, I'm so sold on the idea, I even think it would be a good idea to put in a soccer stadium in as well.

Character Counts

2004-09-28T19:23:00.000-05:00

Often, individual accomplishments on the field are so extraordinary that we overlook what those accomplishments mean in the context of that player's life, in other words, forgetting that prominent professional athletes are humans with lives outside of sports. Recently, we have seen several of these scenarios:

Donovan McNabb has picked apart opposing defenses while his wife becomes exceedingly more "with child" and then finally giving birth to their first child, just days before McNabb's most impressive play of the season so far, against the Lions in Detroit.

Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins has had one of the most dominating seasons in recent memory. All season long, Santana has been extraordinary, but in his last 5 starts, he has 5 wins, an ERA of 0.26, and has held opposing batters to an average of .144, striking out 47 of them and walking only 6. All the while, he has had to concern himself with the safety of his family in Venezuela.

Many PGA Tour players live in Florida ("golfable" temperatures year-round and no state income tax) and so certainly all have been affected in some way by the onslaught of hurricanes. But none have played as well as Vijay Singh has played. Singh has taken over the world rankings and in finishing off one of the greatest seasons in modern golf, all while having to worry about what the latest hurricane will do to his home.

Obviously, we should be impressed by these accomplishments on the field of play, but even more so when you consider what was happening to these athletes off the field of play and these are just some examples. As the old saying goes, "Sports do not build character, they reveal it."

----

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Sammy Sosa. Several days ago, Sosa was thrown out sliding into second base while trying to make up for doing his trademark "homer hop" in the batter's box when he incorrectly thought he had hit a homerun. When asked if his trademark hop was a detriment to the Cubs effort to win the National League Wild Card, Sosa replied:

"I have been doing that a lot of years and I'm not changing now."

This sounds a lot more like Leon from the Budweiser TV ads ("There ain't no 'we' in team" and "If they're payin' - Leon's playin'") than one of the two players that helped to rescue baseball in 1998.

Pitching Needs to Git-R-Done

2004-09-24T15:40:00.000-05:00

As you may have already noticed, much of the talk in the Phillies blogosPHere has turned to next year, thoroughly unimpressed with the fizzled Phightin's recent sweep of the Marlins in Miami. Naturally, talk of next year has phans wondering what moves will be made and what kind of roster we can expect for next year.

Several weeks ago, the major political parties had their national conventions and laid down their party's respective platforms for the direction they would like to see the country take. At roughly the same time, I laid down my platform for the direction I would like to see the Phillies take, and just like the GOP and the Democrats haven't changed their mind since August, neither have I in regards to the Phils.

If anything, my opinions have only strengthened, particularly after reading Rich Hoffman's analysis in yesterday's Daily News and The Berks Phillies Fans' follow-up. Despite the low number of base hits with runners in scoring position and the high number of strikeouts in the lineup, the Phillies rank second in the National League in runs scored in opponents' ballparks. On a game-by-game basis, Mike Lieberthal's poor clutch hitting, Pat Burrell's bail outs in the batter's box, and Jimmy Rollins's upper-cut hacks at high of the strikezone balls can drive a phan crazy, but the numbers don't lie - over the course of the season, the offense has held up its end of the bargain.

The pitching is a different story. As Hoffman points out, the Phillies starting pitchers rank near the bottom in the National League in terms of quality starts (a "quality start" is defined as a performance of 3 ER's or less in at least 6 IP, essentially an ERA of 4.50) and the pitching staff as a whole ranks 12th in the NL in ERA in opponents' parks (4.63). If the Phillies score the same number of runs next year and simply allow a median number of runs for a National League team, they will finish with about 93 wins.

Many fans however, wonder how the Phillies can possibly make such improvements, given the $50-$60 million designated already for players under contract. As I have stated before, it is quite possible to improve the pitching staff on less money:

Starters - The primary starters for the Phillies in 2004 have been Kevin Millwood (free agent), Randy Wolf, Eric Milton (free agent), Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers, Paul Abbot, and Corey Lidle, all of which have increased their career ERA's (except Milton, who is right at his career ERA despite switching to a more pitching-friendly league) and many have been injured. Recommendations: Fire Joe Kerrigan and Larry Bowa. Let Millwood and Lidle walk; don't let Paul Abbot come back; offer Eric Milton 4th-starter-type money and not 1st- or 2nd-starter money, and if he won't take it, find someone who will and can put up a 4.75 ERA; take Ryan Madson out of the bullpen and place him in the rotation; take the money Millwood's money and sign Carl Pavano, even if you have to overpay him because it will strengthen the Phils while weakening the Fish; if Myers can't be packaged in a trade for a centerfielder, then move him to the 'pen.

Bullpen - Like the starting rotation, the bullpen has not lived up to expectations, much of it due to injuries to key players forcing other pitchers into roles for which they are unsuited. Fortunately, a bullpen is an area of a team where you can save money and improve it at the same time (many teams do it every year). Recommendations: Fire Joe Kerrigan and Larry Bowa; let Roberto Horrendez, Rheal Cormier (French for "over-priced gas can"), Todd Jones, and Felix Rodriguez (the 3.15 million he is due for next year is just too much) walk; pick up the option on Billy Wagner; Insert Gavin Floyd into the bullpen - I like the idea of easing pitching prospects into the rotation (first-year quarterbacks are rarely expected to start, why should we expect young pitchers?) - using him as a starter only after the All-Star break if someone goes down with an injury; as I stated earlier, move Brett Myers to the pen where he can hopefully manage to focus for just one inning; fill in the rest of the pen with cheap help the way other successful teams do, no more 3 million dollar incendiary devices thank you very much; groundball specialists or high percentage strikeout pitchers would be preferable in order to negate CBP's short porches.

Couple that with a managerial change (5-game difference?), and the Phils have a mighty good chance to git-r-done (as they say down South) next year.

Remember, This is the NFL

2004-09-23T06:13:00.000-05:00

If you are an Eagles fan, this has been a great week. Monday night, the Eagles went to 2-0 on the season, their best start since 1993 and scanning the headlines of the Philly-area papers, its only a matter of time before names like "Andy Reid Karlewski" and "Donovan McNabb Carminetti" begin to pop up in newborn hopsital wards across the tri-state area. A few examples from Wednesday's headlines:

"Is this Offense Eagles' Best Ever?"

"A Blessing and a Kearse"

"Vermeil's Ghoset Can't Scare Reid"

"Eagles Young Cornerbacks Pass Big Test in Moss"

"J.R. Paying Off With Big Returns"

And there is no doubt the Eagles Phaithful have a lot of evidence to point towards. From the Trenton Times Matt Eckel:

-- Tight end L.J. Smith's two touchdown catches are more than any other tight end in the NFC.

-- Kicker David Akers' 16 points are tied for the NFC lead.

-- Donovan McNabb leads the NFL in quarterback rating (129.4) for the first time in his career.

-- Wide receiver Terrell Owens' four touchdowns are tied for the NFL lead.

-- Running back Brian Westbrook's 299 total yards leads the NFC.

-- Punt returner Reno Mahe's 13.0 yard average leads the NFC.

-- Kickoff returner J.R. Reed's 27.6 yard average is second in the NFC.

-- Reid now has 57 wins, which moves him ahead of Dick Vermeil into second place in Eagles history. He is nine wins short of leader Greasy Neale.

-- Defensive end Jevon Kearse got a lot of deserved credit for his play Monday night, but Walker played his best game in two years.

-- In two games, the Eagles have nine sacks. They did not record their ninth sack last year until Game 6.

It's a lot of fun to be impressed by a team after being depressed by a team all summer long. But I can't help but think about an old adage in golf, particularly match play, that says you should always expect your opponent to make his shot. In other words, never let your guard down, or you will end up losing a hole you should have won and that is the way I feel about this weekend's Eagles game against the Detroit Lions. Everyone is picking the Eagles to win, and they should, but this is still the NFL and so the Lions should be taken every bit as seriously this Sunday as the Vikings were Monday night. If the Eagles can do that, they should win handily.

District Attractions

2004-09-22T12:39:00.000-05:00

As Thomas Boswell summarizes in today's Washington Post, the District has several reasons to be extremely but cautiously optimistic about The/Les/Los Expos moving to the nation's capital, with an announcement coming soon: (1) city officials have announced the site of a future stadium should the Expos indeed move to Washington,DC, (2) the terms of city councilmen in favor of public financing for baseball will be running out in a matter of weeks, and (3) if RFK stadium is to be used in the interim until a permanent stadium can be built, the window of opportunity to adequately modify the facility for baseball in April is quickly closing. The only significant obstacles remain in the form of Peter Angelos.

Coincidentally I will be in the District this weekend visiting a friend while our wives tour Virginia wine country. Our original plans had been to watch college football on Saturday, NFL football Sunday, a trip to the Smithsonian to see the Baseball Hall of Fame's "Baseball as America" traveling exhibit (last time I was in town we checked out the Spy Museum, which I highly recommend), and of course a few of the requisite pubs. Now, we may have to add in a quick run by the Anacostia riverfront.

Rock, Paper, Scissors

2004-09-20T23:17:00.000-05:00

At this point in the season, you have to believe that the sportswriters in the newsrooms of the Philadelphia area papers must get together in a circle every afternoon and play a game of "Rock, Paper, Scissors". The loser of course, gets the unenviable task of covering the Phillies for the next day's edition and coming up with an interesting article. Sunday night, one of the losers in the game of "Rock, Paper, Scissors" was Marcus Hayes. Hayes acted like a true professional, hustled, gave 110%, and might have even gotten a pat on the behind from his editor. In Monday's Philadelphia Daily News Hayes covered the increasing likelihood of Gavin Floyd joining the rotation in 2005, the Wagner/DeMuth affair, goats' hooves, and a new perspective on the length of 60', 6''.

On Floyd:

The assured rotation of the future seems more and more likely to feature a grand total of 10 full seasons among the four probables - Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers and Gavin Floyd.

Yes, rookie prospect Gavin Floyd appears to have pitched himself into inclusion on the Opening Day 2005 staff at least a year sooner than expected when the Phillies made him the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft. Two seasons of regular Class A advancement and a whirlwind tour through Double A and Triple A this year brought him to the Phillies as a promising, tiring, 21-year-old with control problems and poise issues.

Floyd's most impressive attributes since his debut on Sept. 3?

"His mound presence has been pretty good...He's basically staying within himself,'' manager Larry Bowa said. "And he's getting all his pitches over. That's been a pleasant surprise. That was the rap against him; his inability to throw strikes on a consistent basis.''

"He's shown better command at the big-league level than he did in Triple A,'' said Mike Arbuckle, the team's player development director. "I'd just like to see him work off his fastball more.''

So that means at least another half a season in the minors, huh?

"I don't think so," Arbuckle said. "Not if he continues to show the control he's shown. That's an adjustment that can be made at the big-league level."

Gavin Floyd has been mostly impressive since his first start, but it may be preferable to use Floyd in the capacity that Ryan Madson was used this year - an ever-ready long-man in the bullpen - and then insert Madson into the rotation along with a big free agent signing. If rookie quarterbacks aren't expected to start right away, why should young rookie pitchers?

On Wagner and DeMuth:

Wagner, outraged, threw a full cooler of water onto the field and shredded DeMuth verbally afterward, demanding a suspension for DeMuth. For that - not throwing at Floyd - he received a two-game suspension, served Friday and Saturday. Wagner, through the Phillies' front office, sought to apologize to DeMuth last week but they were told DeMuth was, coincidentally, on vacation that was scheduled before the incident.

The league does not announce umpire suspensions...but it is interesting timing for DeMuth's vacation, at least.

Conspiracy theories are usually just that, theories. But the Wagner/DeMuth incident was certainly a case where both the player (his temper tantrum) and the umpire (incredibly poor logic and judgment) were to blame, and so both deserved some type of "vacation".

On goats' hooves:

Amaury Telemaco's farm in the Dominican lost two plantain trees and his goats' hooves are softening with foot rot.

Good effort Mr. Hayes, good effort. Next time, pick "paper", it always works for me when The Missus and I realize we are out of milk.

Exactly how far is sixty feet-six inches? Just ask Todd Jones:

In a rare hitting appearance, reliever Todd Jones, wearing Jim Thome's never-cleaned, pine-tarred helmet, worked a two-out walk off Joe Horgan in the seventh. It was the first time Jones reached base since he doubled in 1995 (he thought he'd last reached in '96). "You don't realize the pitcher is so close to you,'' he said.

The look on my face when I read this was like the look that the duck has on his face in response to Yogi Berra in the AFLAC commercials. So Todd, how far away do you feel from the batter when you are pitching? Do you think this is why so many of your pitches since you have come to the Phillies have been targeted as if it were 70'6" to homeplate?

Even More Links

2004-09-19T18:07:00.000-05:00

You've already read every single word on Balls, Sticks, & Stuff and the Back Page and all the other links on the sidebar? Then check out these other recommended sites.

BASEBALL
General Baseball
The Hardball Times - A group of bloggers writing primarily sabermetric analysis.
Baseball Crank - Baseball (Mets slanted) and politics (rightward slanted).
Sabernomics = Sabermetrics + Ecomomics.
DugoutDollars - "MLB payroll details, thoughts and analysis."
MLB Center - Articles, forums, and occasional interviews.
Business of Baseball - The arm of SABR.org related to business aspects of baseball. Features the Bizball Blog.
The Baseball News Blog - A weblog with daily links to baseball news and analysis.
Bryan Donovan's Sortable Win Shares - Raw data via The Hardball Times.
Doug's Stats - A quick and dirty no frills baseball and basketball stats page.
Baseball Reference - The original (and still the best) quick and dirty no frills baseball stats page.

More on the Phightin's
Berks Phillies Fans
A Citizen's Blog
The Citizens Report
Fire Bowa
PhilliesBlog
PhogLights
Blowa
Fire Ed Wade
Philly Dad

The/Les/Los Expos/Senators/Grays/Nationals
Distinguished Senators - "Outblogging the navvies in Norfolk, the hemp-wearers in Portland, the legitimate businessmen in Vegas, and even Monterrey's blogonistas until MLB comes to its senses."
Ball Wonk - "A wonk's-eye view of Washington's new baseball team - spin, not stats."

Red Sox
Surviving Grady - Rehabilitation for one of the worst letdowns in sports history.
Bambino's Curse - Curse or self-fulfulling prophecy?

Yankees
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog - Even the Evil Empire deserves to have their side of the story told.

Braves
No Pepper - Covers the Braves minor league system, part of the BravesBeat.com network.

Angels
The Pearly Gates - An Angels blog with a bit of conservative California politics thrown in.

Athletics
Athletics Nation - A self-described fan/columnist writing on the A's.
Elephants in the Outfield - "Pitching, Defense and the Three Run Jimmy-Jack".

Twins
Bat-Girl - "Less stats, more sass." Features "Legovision".

Devil Rays
Straightaway Centerfield - There is a picture with me and two of my best friends in the background. Free D-Rays tix to anyone who can find us.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Fanblogs - A group weblog dedicated to the pigskin on campus.
Fire Ron Zook - Now that Larry Bowa is gone, I have only one other head coach to run off.

SPORTS IN GENERAL
The Sporting Life - Sports, culture, general interest.
Off Wing Opinion - "Commentary For The Free Market Sports Fan."

GOLF
Making the Cut - The same author as No Pepper (listed above). I can't help but be impressed by a guy obsessed with both baseball and golf.
The Golf Blog - "All things golf."
MJ on Golf - News, tips, and perspective on golf.

It's Trading Cats and Dogs

2004-09-17T20:09:00.000-05:00

Paul Hagen examines the Phillies centerfield situation in Friday's edition of the Philadelphia Daily News. The 2004 season represented a significant regression in the development of Marlon Byrd, the former Phillies Centerfielder of the Phuture and if the Phightin's are to secure a playoff spot in 2005 they will need to make a significant upgrade.

Because of the expected dearth of centerfield free agents this offseason, I've suggested that the best route for the Phillies to take is to package some type of trade for a centerfielder, and Hagen seems to agree. One trade scenario that Hagen puts forth has the Phillies sending Ryan Howard to the increasingly salary conscious Atlanta Braves for Andruw Jones. This is a case where the needs of two teams do match-up, but the chances of the Phillies and Braves trading again are probably quite slim. But even if it could happen, Phans should hope it doesn't happen because Ryan Howard would surely hit 50 HR's, Andruw Jones would probably play centerfield like he had cinderblocks in his pants pockets, and the Braves would win their 587th division title in a row (I know, I preached optimism, but all the rain in Virginia of late has me thinking pessimistically and making Noah references).

An option that Hagen suggests that is worth considering is acquiring Shannon Stewart or Jacque Jones from the Minnesota Twins. The Twins may be willing to trade one or both of the two outfielders because they are another team that must be payroll conscious, they need starting pitching (maybe they see something in Brett Myers?), and they have a surplus of good young outfielders which makes the higher paid Stewart and Jones expendable. Yet another option may be Laynce Nix from the Texas Rangers. The Rangers need starting pitchers (maybe they see something in Brett Myers) and the Phillies have been seen scouting the Rangers in the past.

Worst case scenario? The Phillies could resign Rickey Ledee and platoon him with Jason Michaels in centerfield. According to Ruben Amaro's discussion with Hagen, Michaels role with the Phillies isn't likely to expand, but the more Michaels plays, the more willing I would be to settle for that scenario, as long as other needs on the roster are completely taken care of (just like phans thought entering the 2004 season).

In Defense of Moneyball and Sabermetrics

2004-09-15T22:25:00.000-05:00

One of the baseball blogs I read quite often is Swing and a Miss. The author, Tom Goodman, manages to create thoughtful posts on a daily basis. Today is no exception, though I must disagree with his post on the use of sabermetrics and what the book Moneyball means to baseball. I do not mean to pick on Tom, but I think his post is very representative of the traditionalist/anti-sabermetrics/anti-Moneyball school of thought. It isn't so much that I have a problem with traditionalists disagreeing with sabermetrics, the problem I have is when traditionalists disagree with sabermetrics only after they have mis-characterized it.

The Moneyball Philosophy
Traditionalists are mistaken on the nature of the teams sabermetrically inclined organizations try to build. It seems as if traditionalists believe that the A's are only interested in acquiring players with quirky wrinkles in their statistical histories. But that is not the case. If you were to have a panel of baseball traditionalists name the top ten hitters in baseball today and then asked a panel of sabermetricians to name the top ten hitters in baseball today, I am sure the two panels would name nearly the same ten hitters in nearly the same order. Teams like the A's, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays use in-depth statistical analysis as an additional tool to evaluate players, to be used in conjunction with traditional scouting techniques. If Billy Beane and Theo Epstein didn't believe in the value of traditional scouting, they wouldn't retain traditional scouts on their payroll. In interview after interview, sabermetrically labeled GM's reiterate that they are not turning their back on traditional scouting, the use of sabermetrics is just an additional tool they emphasize when building a team.

Theo Epstein and the Red Sox are an example. Tom claims on Swing and a Miss that the Red Sox are only successful because Theo Epstein inherited players such as Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez from the previous Red Sox regime and because anyone can figure out Curt Schilling is a pitcher to trade for, Young Theo shouldn't deserve any credit there either. But what traditionalists leave out is that because Epstein used all the tools at his disposal, objective quantifiers and subjective qualifiers, he saw the value in players such as David Ortiz and Kevin Millar, both of which have been significant cogs in the Red Sox wheel over the last two years. Sabermetrics will tell you that all five of these players were valuable entering the 2003 season, whereas traditional baseball analysis will tell you that only Pedro and Manny and Curt were valuable.

Using the baseball traditionalists line of thinking, Noah would have had to build his ark with just a hammer and anything more would be egg-headed. Beane and Epstein would have been willing to let Noah use a hammer, wood glue, caulk, and whatever else he thought would help.

Sample Sizes and Historical Context
Sabermetrics relies on statistics, and statistics carry more and more weight as the sample size gets larger and larger. Statistics characterizing a small sample size mean nearly nothing, but statistics describing hundreds or even thousands of occurrences can carry serious weight. A .500 batting average after ten at-bats will garner little attention, but a career average of .285 after 5,000 at-bats means much more. Ironically, the track record of sabermetrically inclined baseball teams is suffering from judgments made on very small sample sizes: just a few playoff series over just four years. More traditional baseball thinkers point to the failures of the A's the last four years in the playoffs and say that is proof that Billy Beane's Moneyball-thinking does not work in Major League Baseball.

Traditionalists are correct in that an approach to building a team should be judged on the number of championships it acquires, but they are wrong in not allowing the sabermetric movement in baseball to develop over time and see where it leads. For instance, in football, the West Coast Offense has been the approach that the majority of Super Bowl winners have used in the past two decades, and because of that, nearly everyone can agree that it has been - and continues to be - a superior style of offense. But, we've made that judgment after two decades.

When Joe Montana connected with Dwight Clark in the back of the endzone in order to advance to the Super Bowl, the West Coast Offense was merely a blip in the history of the NFL. Sabermetrics is at a similar stage in history. It has taken the accumulation of time for us to appreciate the West Coast Offense, and it will take a similar accumulation of success - or failure - for us to finally understand the impact sabermetrics will have on Major League Baseball. To put it another way, at this point in baseball history after essentially four playoff series, to say that sabermetrics doesn't work in the Bigs is like saying in 1996 that Tiger Woods was never going to be a dominant player on the PGA Tour because he didn't win the first tournament he entered as a professional. And so, it is wrong for traditional baseball thinkers to quickly to shut the door on teams such as the A's, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays.

---

Because I believe in the power of large sample sizes and the objectivity statistics can bring to any endeavor, I tend to lean towards the sabermetric side of the argument. However, I am not drinking from the Kool-Aid so much as to think it is the end-all-be-all for baseball. There are certain things in baseball like baserunning and defense which are very difficult to quantify. And anyone who has played a sport knows that chemistry is important, but measuring it in order to learn to create it is an entirely different story. The one thing I am positive of is that I will enjoy every bit of watching it play out over the coming years.

District Hardball

2004-09-15T17:14:00.000-05:00

Conventional wisdom believes that the Montreal Expos will move to the Washington, DC/Northern Virginia area. Obstacles include placating Orioles owner Peter Angelos and obtaining funding for a stadium. As parallel negotiations play out between Major League Baseball and groups representing Washington, DC and Northern Virginia, the issues seem to become more complicated.

Recent District elections will install leadership that is on the record as being against public funding of a stadium. This would probably push MLB towards the NoVa option, however, conventional wisdom also believes that RFK Stadium in the District will be used until a permanent stadium can be built, no matter which option is chosen by MLB. But RFK officials are on record as saying they will be quite tough on negotiating with MLB should they choose NoVa.

Baseball Roundtable

2004-09-15T13:27:00.000-05:00

Starting on September 18, 2004, there will be a "Baseball Roundtable" in the Forums section of MLBCenter.com. The discussion will cover baseball in general and the increasing popularity of baseball blogs and fan websites. The moderator has invited me to be one of the bloggers/webmasters/writers answering questions. Since he has invited me to participate, I invite all of you to stop by and check it out.

The Case FOR Ed Wade

2004-09-15T12:25:00.000-05:00

David Pinto at Baseball Musings points us to a new website (new to me, and apparently David too), FireEdWade.com. For most of the season, I have essentially defended Ed Wade for several reasons, largest of which is his ability to obtain good players in the offseason. No one can convince me it has been easy over the last several offseasons for Ed Wade to make a pitch to free agents:

Wade takes a call from Mr. Agent-Representing-a-Possible-MVP/Cy Young-Candidate...
"Uh, yeah, you are right Mr. Agent-Representing-a-Possible-MVP/Cy Young-Candidate, we do have a very unforgiving fan base."...
...(Mr. Agent talking on the telephone similar to Charlie Brown's teacher)...
"Uh, yeah, that was Santa they booed, but in their defense he was drunk."
...(Mr. Agent talking more)...
"Uh, yes you are right, they did boo the greatest third baseman of all-time"
...(Mr. Agent talking more)...
"Well, I won't lie to you, the rats at the Vet are huge, but the stray cats at least keep the population in check."
...(Mr. Agent talking more)...
"No, the statistics you have are correct, the Phillies have lost more games than any other professional sports franchise."
...(Mr. Agent talking more)...
Our manager? Bo'? He's a pussy cat, seriously."
....(click)...
"Hello? Hello?"

An additional factor in Wade's favor is his work with the farm system. Before Ed Wade, there were no "Untouchables". In discussing trades, other teams call the Phillies to get Gavin Floyd, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, and Ryan Madson (and probably Ryan Howard soon too) and Wade has had the good sense not to trade them.

But probably the best reason to keep Ed Wade: There is an old saying "The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know." What part of Phillies history makes one think a better replacement would be installed? Paul Owens (1924-2003, R.I.P., architect of the 1980 Phils) was probably the best general manager the Phillies have ever had, and I am pretty sure propping him up in the front office like Bernie Lomax would not gain the Phightin's much. Yes, there are better general managers and probably general manager-candidates out there, but I for one wouldn't trust the Phillies upper brass to figure out who they are, and then get them to come to Philadelphia (see above telephone conversation).

The Phillies have other issues that should be addressed long before Ed Wade is fired. And in my mind, Ed Wade is the best person in the organization to accomplish the offseason improvements that need to be made.

Update [5/16/05]: It appears as if many people are Googling or Yahooing "Ed Wade" and turning up this post. If you'd like to read more on my thoughts about the Phillies and Ed Wade, go to the new and improved Balls, Sticks, & Stuff at www.ballssticksstuff.com. See you there!

Handy Gadget

2004-09-13T12:44:00.000-05:00

Due to a downturn in the economy, growing player salaries, and the enduring popularity of Michael Lewis's Moneyball, baseball teams are evaluating what they are getting in return from their players with increased scrutiny and creativity. This is interesting because baseball fans have been thinking in these terms for years now, and one such fan, John Bradbury writing at Sabernomics, has developed a MLB Salary Estimator. Plug in a player's batting average, on-base average, slugging percentage, position, salary (Dugout Dollars or USA Today are good sources), and the year in which the player debuted in the Bigs and you will get the answer to the age old question, "is this player really worth all that money?" Well, almost. Several things to keep in mind before plugging stats and salaries in and drawing conclusions willy-nilly:

Players are compared to other players of a similar service time and position. Keep this in mind when examining players such as Albert Pujols. Because the Cardinals had the good sense to award him with a good contract before he hit arbitration and free agency, he is paid drastically more than his peers.
Obviously, the estimator does not take defense into account. Players like Andruw Jones will look drastically overpaid when defense is not taken into consideration. If Jones's defense was somehow considered, he would only be overpaid (instead of drastically overpaid).
All salaries are compared to the 2003 market. So plugging in Ted Williams salary and statistics for the 1949 season isn't exactly comparing apples with apples.

Now, with those thoughts in mind, try not to get fired today as you spend the afternoon plugging in players.

It Was the T-Shirt All This Time?

2004-09-13T06:34:00.000-05:00

The 2005 Phillies Spring Training T-Shirt

As we have all heard ad pukem, when the Phillies began spring training sporting t-shirts reading, "Now Is The Time", it apparently had a negative effect, opposite from what was intended. The t-shirts were meant to inspire. Coming into spring training the Phillies had a new and improved roster (on paper), the rest of the NL East was in decline (on paper), and just about everyone who had just heard of the game of baseball was picking the Phillies to win the NL East and go deep into the playoffs.

But as we all know, that is not how the season turned out. The team knew there would be no excuses for failure, and instead of just taking the field and reacting reflexively to the ball and rely on the natural athleticism that got them to the peak of their field, they seized up, squeezing the bats too tight at the plate and thinking too much on the mound. Underperforming all season, the injuries began to mount in direct correlation to the humidity and the team faded out of playoff contention after a 1-9 stretch in August.

But fast-forward to mid-September. The Phillies have won 6 straight - 9 out of their last 10 - and have media and phans alike asking, "What happened between August and September?" Apparently, the team learned how to relax. Todd Zolecki quotes Tim Worrell in the Inqy:

"I think the biggest thing, really, is that we were somewhat out of it, and now we're just relaxing and playing"...
..."Weren't we picked to be playing the Yankees in the World Series? I think that's part of it. I signed here because of that. So my expectations were where everyone's were. Things didn't go our way early. And obviously, we're responsible for that. You can see that. And when guys got hurt and other guys stepped in, they pressed, too. You press because you want to contribute, but it takes you out of your game."

If that is the case, that the expectations got to the team and they wilted under the pressure, then its conceivable that phans could have to endure another stretch of bad play. Because of the recent good play, with twenty games to go the Phillies are again in contention for a playoff berth, albeit just barely. But before you count them out, the Phillies are well aware that their psychological profile is their biggest obstacle (again, Zolecki and Worrell):

"...We can't sit there and let what we're doing right now get us into that 'Geez, we have to win today.' Because we did that earlier in the season and look what happened."

So when takes the mound against one has to wonder, how tight will Gavin Floyd hold the ball tonight on the mound when he faces the Cincinnati Reds? Will Pat Burrell leave fingerprint like indentations in his Louisville Slugger?

Carmella, It's My Busiest Time of the Year

2004-09-12T20:51:00.000-05:00

Even though most people choose not to gamble, I think that everyone believes that if they were simply given enough chances, they could beat the house more often than not. Fortunately most people realize that it may take them a whole lot of chances to come out ahead, but in the end, everyone feels that they would come out ahead.

With that in mind I decided to conduct a little experiment and enter an NFL fantasy betting league I surfed across (www.beyondthescore.com). Essentially, you are given $1000 of imaginary money to gamble on NFL games using the standard odds from your typical Las Vegas casino sports book. Hopefully, I will crash and burn early in the season because getting enough false confidence to place actual bets would not be good. The Missus/My Chief Financial Officer would not be amused.

Without further ado, my picks for Week 1:

Eagles (-9.5) over the NY Football Giants, $150
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) over the Cleveland Browns, $100
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) over the Miami Dolphins, $150
Houston Texans (-4.5) over the SD Chargers, $100

My strategy was to stay conservative and treat the season as a marathon and not a sprint, placing bets only on games I felt completely comfortable about for the first week. The results (the house pays out $100 for every $110 bet):

Eagles 31, Giants 17
Ravens 3, Browns 20
Titans 17, 'Phins 7
Texans 20, Chargers 27

Fortunately, I won the larger bets I made and lost only the smaller ones, which puts me in the black for the week. The Ravens/Browns game is the one that really hurt - I thought the Ravens would beat that spread by at least 10 points.

Bankroll entering Week 1: $1000
Bankroll after Week 1: $1072

Debates and Last Call

2004-09-10T14:07:00.000-05:00

The Gavin Floyd vs. Paul Abbott Debate
Thankfully, much of the print media that covers the Phillies is being realistic about Gavin Floyd after two good starts. It would be very easy to point to Floyd as the pitcher that should have been inserted into the rotation earlier in the summer, rather than Paul Abbott. Balls, Sticks, & Stuff has been quite clear about our perception of Abbott's skills as a pitcher and we've been quite clear about our thoughts on Floyd as well, but Kevin Roberts of the South New Jersey Courier-Post surmises correctly:

Bringing up Floyd might have been a disaster, and it might have saved the season. You can't know.

Every time Floyd pitches well, there will be more raised eyebrows and second-guessing. And that's OK; it goes with the territory. Besides, the Phillies would rather Floyd pitch well, build confidence and lay the groundwork for success next year - even if every swing of his arm makes the Paul Abbott decision look worse and worse.

Anyone that's followed the Phillies this season knows that Paul Abbott is not the only reason the team has floundered. Gavin Floyd has some control over the number of opposing batters he strikes out, but he has no control over the poor situational hitting displayed all season long. He also has no control over the inconsistency of Kevin Millwood, the glass elbow of Randy Wolf, the Genesis Space Capsule-like performance of the bullpen, or Larry "Tom Smykowski" Bowa.

Last Call
Speaking of L-Bo, everyone was mildly amused when he joked about getting through the long nights this summer with the help of scotch, but I am beginning to think he was serious. Here is a recent quote from Bowa regarding the recent series with the Braves (also in Kevin Roberts's column):

"You would've thought this series would be different," Phillies manager Larry Bowa said. "But because of circumstances beyond our control, it is what it is.

Circumstances beyond our control? The scotch is beginning to cloud his judgment if he thinks the entire season can be blamed on injuries, but that is apparently the stance he is taking. I can't wait to see Bowa in a Mets uniform next year. What excuses will he have then? "Well, after a shot of Jägermeister, it really came to me, it's beyond our control that they traded away Scott Kazmir...I wasn't even here then, so it can't possibly be my fault."

No, Bo', it can't possibly be your fault...Another round?

Can We Survive Grady?!?!

2004-09-08T19:49:00.000-05:00

Several weeks ago, I discovered Surviving Grady, a Red Sox blog with the mission statement:

Grady Little should be remembered as the biggest goat this baseball town (Boston) has ever seen.

I've enjoyed reading the blog until tonight, when I read this as they closed out their post:

Gammons predicts Grady Little will coach the Phillies next year.

Immediately I fired off an email to commiserate@survivinggrady.com asking where in the world they heard such a thing. To make a horrifying story short, Tom at Surviving Grady (yes, another Tom blogging about baseball, as if Shallow Center, Swing and a Miss, and Balls, Sticks, & Stuff weren't enough) quickly replied that Gammons had thrown it out there on Baseball Tonight last night (Tuesday).

I realize the Pendulum of Managerial Style at the Phillies is swinging towards a laid-back manager, but isn't that a bit too far? This guy was so lethargic he let Pedro talk him into staying in one of the most important games in the team's history after he had just let 5 of 7 batters reach base and was clearly fatigued.

The way their team is playing, the Red Sox Nation may survive Grady Little. Asking Phans to survive even the announcement of the hiring of Grady Little after being asked to survive this season is way too much to ask.

Progression to the Mean?

2004-09-08T18:17:00.000-05:00

The team started out with members of the pitching performing below expectations and even a few pitchers went down with injury. Additionally, the offense was inconsistent. Many of the batters had decent statistics, but the team had trouble scoring runs at times. As we entered the summer, much of the focus turned to the manager. Eventually though, most people who seriously followed baseball expected the team to come around. After all, we thought, these are players with long histories of good production so certainly it is only a matter of time before the team starts to play like we think they should.

That could be the description for much of the season for either the Philadelphia Phillies or the Houston Astros. But since the All-Star break, and particularly since August 1, the stories have been quite different. Since August 1st, when the Astros decided they had had enough of their quirky manager, Jimy Williams, and replaced him with Phil Garner, the team has been on playing quite well, getting into a virtual tie for the Wild Card in the National League with the Cubs. The Phillies on the other hand never did get it together, and actually plummeted down the standings through August - they failed to beat a team over .500 - settling into third above the rudderless Mets and the cityless Expos.

The 'Stros may have simply "progressed" to the mean and began to win the way their players career histories would predict they should. But it is also possible that changing managers made a difference, on some level at least. So while the Astros recognized their shortcomings and addressed them early enough to make September meaningful, while the Phillies were content with the status quo. I can certainly understand not trading any of the Untouchables, but if it is clear you can't make a significant trade, then isn't replacing Larry Bowa warranted?

It is likely that because the Astros brass took a proactive stance, their fans can enjoy a race for a playoff spot and maybe even the playoffs themselves. It is also likely that because the Phillies brass took an inactive stance, their phans can turn to the Eagles or analyze the minutiae of every start Gavin Floyd makes from now until the end of the month.

It Could be Worse...

2004-09-08T12:20:00.000-05:00

...You could be a New York Mets fan.

First, the Mets trade uber-prospect Scott Kazmir to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano, claiming they were getting back into the NL East race. The Mets were in fourth place and seven games behind the Braves at the time, not exactly the type of circumstances you want to trade one of your best young pitching prospects for a wildly erratic 29 year-old starter. And now comes news from Adam Rubin, writing for the New York Daily News, who quotes an unidentified source that says Larry Bowa is interested in becoming the Mets bench coach for 2005. Yet another inside source claims that the Mets are inclined to keep Art Howe, their current manager around for another year, but surround him with "energetic, hands-on" coaches.

If by "energetic" you mean "volcanic" and if by "hands-on" you mean "micro-manager", then my offer from mid-August still stands.

A Slight But Slippery Slope

2004-09-05T20:02:00.000-05:00

For several years, Mike Schmidt has been on the record as being in favor of Pete Rose becoming reinstated into baseball. In a piece by Jim Salisbury in the Philadelphia Inquirer, Schmidt continues his support of Rose, advocating for a final decision on the matter to be made by baseball commissioner Bud Selig. While I agree with The Best Third Baseman of All Time that a decision should be made soon, I differ with Schmidt on the final verdict.

Supporters of Rose will argue that what Rose did pales in comparison to what many athletes have done - taking illegal drugs, getting arrested for assault or abuse, even murder. And when one looks at these comparisons in the context of society, they are right, Rose's indiscretions do pale in comparison to those crimes. But Selig isn't making his decision for the good of society - the justice system did that years ago - he is making it for the good of baseball. In the context of baseball, Rose's indiscretions are worse than the crimes of other athletes. Despite the mounting list of misdeeds of other athletes, fans continue to fill stadiums, buy jerseys, and subscribe to satellite TV packages. But if fans begin to question the validity of the outcomes of games, or even seasons, because of suspicions of gambling, the degree at which they patronize and take an interest in baseball will quickly and steadily decrease.

Will reinstating Pete Rose directly lead to an increase in the amount of gambling within baseball? No, but in a very indirect way, it might. Reinstating Rose will set a precedent that gambling on baseball is not grounds for lifetime dismissal, which would represent a weakening of the stance baseball has taken for decades as gambling has always been grounds for lifetime dismissal. This is one stance, for the good of baseball, can not be altered. It's a chance the sport can not afford to take.

As Selig deliberates, he must ask himself, "How will history view this decision?" The question he should not ask himself while deliberating is, "What do the fans want?" In other words, he needs to remember that he needs to do what is best for baseball, not what is most popular.

Introducing the Back Page

2004-09-05T13:50:00.000-05:00

Several days ago, I introduced a blog withing a blog so to speak. Unfortunately, in it's original format, it was difficult to update and difficult for people to link to. So, I've created a new blog, Balls, Sticks, & Stuff's Back Page. The content of the Back Page will be quick short posts regarding the little interesting things we come across while surfing the web, short blurbs rather than more lengthy posts.

Gavin Floyd Blog

2004-09-03T19:03:00.000-05:00

10:17 AM: Originally, The Missus and I were going to be heading down to Charleston for the Labor Day weekend, but plans have changed, so I'll be watching Gavin Floyd's debut tonight against the Mets instead. And at this late date, since I have nothing better to do, I've decided to blog in real-time tonight, updating during Floyd's start. So, if you are looking for an insightful perspective with a high degree of analytical commentary, look no further. Cancel your night out with your significant other, crack open an adult beverage, turn on the ballgame, mute the sound, and hit refresh every couple of minutes on your browser.

Disclaimer/Fine Print: I'm not saying I will actually have an insightful perspective with a high degree of analytical commentary, I'm just saying, look no further.

Gavin Floyd

6:15 PM: The Missus gets home and announces she wants to go out to dinner. I explain that Gavin Floyd is debuting in the major leagues tonight, I'd like to see the game, if Gavin goes on to become a Hall of Famer in twenty years, I'd like to be able to say I saw him pitch his first game on TV. She is not impressed.

6:37 PM: We are seated at a new Italian restaurant around the corner from our house by the hostess. Our waiter comes over and looks like Hervé Villechaize's slightly taller brother. The Missus is not amused when I point it out after he leaves.

7:05 PM: I can only assume the first pitch is tossed.

7:58 PM: On the way home I hear on ESPN Radio that the Phils and Mets are each scoreless through two and I let out a mini fist-pump. Again, she's not impressed.

8:02 PM: I get MLB.tv fired up in time to hear Tom Seaver hypothesizing that the Mets batters would begin to get to Floyd because it is the second time through the lineup. Nice try Tom, Floyd gets Piazza and Cliff Floyd to ground out on the first pitch.

8:14 PM: Yes, I know this is a blog about Gavin Floyd, but I can't help but be glad for Pat Burrell when he hits a homerun, putting the Phils up 2-1 through 4 innings.

8:29 PM: In the fifth inning, Floyd gets screwed on a call by the umpire on an outside fastball to Todd Zeile, who walks on the pitch. Fortunately Eric Valent hits into an inning ending double play on his first pitch following Zeile. Phils up 2-1 through the top of the fifth.

8:43 PM: If I had to listen to Tom Seaver announce every game I would wear earplugs. So far he has railed on every hitter for striking out 100 times in a season.

8:47 PM: Floyd's 20th curveball of the game (top of 6th inning) gets Mike Piazza to ground into a double play. Through 6 innings Floyd has thrown 48 of 77 pitches for strikes, has struck out 4, walked 3, given up 4 hits - one of which was a solo homerun, and induced two double plays. Phils up 3-1.

8:59 PM: Larry Bowa sends Gavin Floyd to bat with two outs and men on first and third in the bottom of the sixth. He grounds out, but given the way he has pitched so far and given the way the Phils bullpen has been, I think it is the right thing to do, we will see how it pans out with David Wright, Gerald Williams and Jason Phillips due up in the top of the 7th.

9:05 PM: Floyd walks David Wright on seven pitches. Roberto Horrendez is warming up in the bullpen. Can't we help the kid out a bit more than that?

9:12 PM: Floyd must have realized that Horrendez is warming up because he gets two fly outs and a strike out looking to end the inning. Phils up 3-1 through the top of the 7th inning. Bowa's tactics in the bottom of the sixth panned out.

9:36 PM: The Phillies tack on 5 runs in the bottom of the seventh. Rheal Cormier takes the mound in the top of the eighth with the Phillies up 8-1. Gavin Floyd's final line in what looks to be a Win in his major league debut is 7 IP, 5K, 4BB, 4H, 1ER, 57 of 95 pitches for strikes.

I'm impressed.

Unshiny Unhappy People

2004-09-03T10:58:00.000-05:00

Tired of all the negativity surrounding the Phillies, this morning I decided to turn my attention to the Eagles. "Surely there must be a plethora of positive articles about the Eagles." The first two articles I find are by Sal Paolantonio reporting on the perceived shortcomings of Andy Reid and Len Pasquarelli doing the same for Donovan McNabb.

"Just when I thought I was out, THEY PULL ME BACK IN!"

What is it with Philadelphia, phans, and negativity? Other fan groups have it as well, Red Sox fans and Cubs fans immediately come to mind. But Boston Red Sox fans at least remain positive right up until the very last second (when their outlook instantly morphs into a completely resigned fatalism). Cubs fans, in most years, know they aren't going to win, but really don't care in the end as long as they have a nice summer in the sun at Wrigley. These fans can at least enjoy the experience.

Possibly it is easier for me to retain a certain amount of optimism because I do not live in Pennsylvania and therefore I am not exposed to the constant phlagellation from co-workers, friends, radio, and television. In a sea of Redskins and Orioles and Braves fans I can keep in perspective how fortunate I am to have Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid at the helm of my favorite football team and see that while the Phillies are a major disappointment, that the franchise is head-and-shoulders above what it was several years ago.

Back to Reid and McNabb specifically, Sal Pal reports the interesting fact that Andy Reid's contract runs out this year and inevitably Sal Pal uses the term "hot seat". How can a coach that has resurrected a franchise and taken them to the semi-finals of an entire professional sport three years in a row and favored to do so a fourth time be on the hot seat? In the depths of the Richie Kotite/Ray Rhodes eras, if you had told any Eagles fan that in a couple of years the team would go to the NFC Championship game three years in a row, they would have hastily dropped their cheesesteaks, gone down on bended knee and thanked their Maker. As for McNabb, Len Pasquarelli also brings up the three NFC Championship game appearances as if they are a bad thing and calls McNabb's throwing accuracy into question. Many a fall Sunday afternoon, I have tossed my hands up in the air and rolled my eyes as a McNabb tries to bounce a pass to an open receiver. But after a few deep breaths I remind myself of my take on his accuracy: He is being coached to throw the ball low. It is very rare that a pass thrown too low is intercepted and Pasquarelli does point out that while the number of McNabb's passing touchdowns may not be as high as we would like, his interception totals are extremely low. That's a trade off I am more than willing to take.

Bill1chair@Blowhard.com

2004-09-02T22:17:00.000-05:00

At one point or another, all of us have had a motherly figure say, "If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all." But sometimes I can't help but think Mother Conlin must have said something different to a young Bill Conlin, "If you can't say anything nice, be a sports columnist for the losingist sports franchise in history."

Anyone who follows the Phillies is disappointed in the way 2004 has gone, and rightfully so. As a general rule in baseball, the more money you spend, the better your team will do. However, that's not what happened to the Phillies after the big spending in the previous two offseasons. The Phillies have the fourth highest payroll in baseball and yet they are solidly in the middle of the pack in baseball, epitomizing the term "also-ran". Disappointment is natural and expected, but Conlin's column in Thursday's Philadelphia Daily News goes beyond disappointment, it's an exercise in splenetic petulance.

Yes Bill, we are all disappointed. Yes Bill, we are all hoping for something different in 2004. But what good does a column like this do? I can certainly understand expressing your displeasure, I've certainly done it repeatedly, but at this point, Phandom needs to focus on what the positives of the team are - and there are some - and what changes can be made in the offseason to make next years team better. Yes, phans should expect and demand better from the Phillies, but columns such as this do nothing but contribute to the natural cynicism that pervades the area and clouds the possibility of some forward thinking.

Instead of a thoughtful and reflective column that points out the development of two young baseball players with the potential to be All-Stars in Chase Utley and Ryan Madson, we get statements from Conlin like "The slogan of this outfit could have been Better Losing Through Bad Chemistry." Conlin also has the benefit of 20/15 hindsight, "Maybe it should have been an item of concern that despite the addition of Milton to the rotation, the other four guys still were named Padilla, Wolf, Millwood and Myers." The Phillies have a farm system containing several young players that every general manager in baseball covets, but because objective reasoning is lost on Conlin, he can't appreciate Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels, instead he closes the column with, "I don't have the heart to tell you what a mess the Phillies' minor leagues are in. Again."

Reading between the lines, you get the impression that Conlin would actually prefer to re-live the 1964 Phillies collapse than the unfulfilled potential of 2004. But I am willing to contend that if we could somehow dig up some writings of Conlin from 1964, we would find that he wished the Phillies had played .500 ball for most of the season than lose a large lead in the last weeks of the season. For that matter, I would also bet that somewhere out there, there are essays written in faded ink on brittle yellow parchment with Conlin stating, "Moving the nation's capital to Washington, DC will never work, it should return to York, Pennsylvania."

What would you do Bill? If David Montgomery called you tomorrow and said, "Gee Bill, I've been reading your columns and I think you are the man for the general manager job." What would be the first action you would take? We know from your columns you can complain with the best of the old fogies, but can you talk free agents into coming to play for a team that has a long history of losing and a fickle fan base the way Ed Wade can? Who would you hire to replace Larry Bowa? A "player's manager" or a hard-nosed disciplinarian? Want to start all over gain with a new core of players? Who do you trade? What general managers can you talk into taking on the contracts of Abreu or Burrell or whoever else you feel should leave town?

I guess when you face such weighty issues every day as deciding what donut to dunk in the coffee mug, running a major league baseball franchise must look like child's play. I can't wait to read in the coming months what Bill Conlin would do if he were in charge of the Phillies. He will tell us won't he?

Reasons to Watch Baseball

2004-08-31T22:15:00.000-05:00

Phillies phans are feeling depressed, embarrassed, and even abused. They are wondering what happened, how did it go so wrong, and when they should turn their attention entirely to football. We'll have several months to decide upon the first two, but as for me, the answer to the last issue is "not just yet", for several reasons:

Ichiro - While playing on a horrible Seattle Mariners team, Ichiro Suzuki is chasing one of the longest standing records in baseball, George Sisler's most hits in a season (257 hits in 1920, hitting .407 that year). Ichiro has a great shot at it, he hits leadoff so he gets a lot of plate appearances. And, he doesn't walk much, putting a ball in play on just about every at-bat, often using his speed to turn outs into infield hits. I've seen many of today's best players - Greg Maddux, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey, Jr., Tony Gwynn, Pedro Martinez - but one player I have not seen, and would love to, is Ichiro. In the era of the longball, Ichiro is an entirely different player who uses an extraordinary combination of eye-hand coordination and speed to get on base.

Gavin Floyd - If the Phillies were in the hunt for a playoff spot, or if injuries have not continued to mount in the starting rotation, Gavin Floyd probably wouldn't see any action in the big leagues this year. The general consensus on this Untouchable is that he has been inconsistent at times this year, showing flashes of both brilliance and mediocrity while splitting time between AA Reading and AAA Scranton/WB. At the tender age of 21, he is quite young to be at the AAA level, much less the Bigs, and probably could use some more "seasoning". However, for those of us that have not seen him pitch this year, we can get a preview of the things in Floyd we have been hearing and reading so much about - intenstinal fortitude, a dazzling fastball, presence and poise - things that we will hopefully see for years to come.

AL West Crown and AL Wild Card - The A's, Angels, Rangers, and Red Sox will all face each other and compete with each other for two playoff spots during September, with all four teams entering the month on a high. The A's are doing it with pitching, the Rangers are doing it with the longball, the Red Sox are doing it with chemistry, and the Angels are doing it with a rejuvenated college punter. It's hard to root against any of these teams and its a shame that two of them will be sitting at home in October.

The Well-Oiled Machines A.K.A. Braves and Cardinals - Sure, phans wish the Phillies were the best team in the National League (instead of the Cardinals) and if not, we would settle for the best team in the NL East (instead of the Braves). But you have to admire the teams that actually do hold those positions. Both teams have used combinations of great hitting and pitching to achieve such lofty status this season, but probably the most interesting thing about the teams is that no one expected such performances from them. The Cardinals were expected to score a lot of runs, but were also expected to give up a lot of runs and finish third in the NL Central behind what we all thought would be the pitching rich Cubs and Astros. Instead, the Cubs and Astros have both faltered due to injuries, but is there anyone that can say they would have been able to keep pace with the Cardinals even without the injuries? As for the Braves, most pundits and bloggers and experts and everyone else picked them to finish second or third in the NL East, and the way the first two months of the season went, no one thought they had underestimated the Braves. But since then, particularly since the All-Star break the Braves have been a juggernaut with Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone turning in one of their best coaching performances yet.

My fantasy football draft is Wednesday night and I'm starting to look forward to the West Coast offense - ala Andy Reid, the budding romance between Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens, and the emergence of Chris Leak as a star, but I'm not about to cancel my subscription to MLB.tv. Stay tuned.

The Pathology of Phailure

2004-08-30T15:02:00.000-05:00

On Sunday, by defeating the Brewers 10-0, the Phillies swept the Brewers for the second weekend in a row, six games in all. It took most of the season, but the Phillies have finally found a team they can treat the same way the Dave Matthews Band treats river tour boats. Which is coincidental because that is the same way the Marlins and Braves have treated the Phillies all year.

Despite having a less than 5% chance of making the playoffs, the Phillies recent hot streak has players very upbeat. Almost too much. During Sunday's rout of the Brewers, Marlon Byrd flipped his bat and showboated after hitting a grand slam, only his thirteenth career homerun. News that there will probably be more players coming off of the disabled list than going onto it could also be a source of inspiration for the players. While Randy Wolf's season is most likely over due to injury, the Phillies got very encouraging news on the rehabilitations of Pat Burrell (originally thought to be out for the year), Kevin Millwood, Ryan Madson, and Billy Wagner. Additional help could also come in the form of Gavin Floyd, one of the organization's Untouchables, who will get a chance in September to help the team finish the season.

But perhaps the piece of news that has the Phillies players seeing the glass half-full the most is the latest developments in the never-ending storyline regarding the cognitive behavioral experiment that is Larry Bowa. On Sunday, Randy Miller of the Bucks County Courier-Times/Burlington County Times/The Intelligencer/Calkins Media/PhillyBurbs.com reported that Larry Bowa will be fired in the offseason. Citing "team sources", Miller states that after several interviews with veteran players regarding Bowa and the coaching staff, Ed Wade has reached the conclusion that the time is almost now to fire the manager in the offseason as well as pitching coach Joe Kerrigan, hitting coach Greg Gross, and bench coach John Vukovich.

The anonymous team sources also confided in Miller that Larry Bowa was not Ed Wade's first choice as manager and that not only has Wade had to discipline Bowa, but so have the players:

According to one veteran, players became so frustrated at his behavior this season that a few occasionally put a stop to it by shouting at Bowa to quiet down during games. Others say Bowa finally became a changed man in July, which is around the time sources say he was ordered by Wade to control his emotions at all times.

The article does not state when such exchanges in the dugout occurred, but once they did, Bowa should not have lasted a second longer. When the head of any team loses control of his clubhouse, he needs to be fired, end of story. If the manager has lost control of the clubhouse he has lost the respect of the players, and if he has lost their respect it is impossible to inspire good play from them.

After being swept by the Marlins in July, Bowa stated he was embarrassed and that the players should be embarrassed as well. The argument could be made he was correct, but at this point everyone should be embarrassed, from the owners down to management down to the players and even the trainers, bat boys. Bowa may have a large hand in this year's failures, but well-run organizations do not have the history this team has amassed. The 2004 season is only a symptom of a chronic syndrome of mismanagement resulting in one failure after another.

Embarrassing indeed.

Updates

2004-08-29T20:15:00.000-05:00

Those of you who visit Balls, Sticks, & Stuff with any regularity will notice we've made a few subtle changes to the look and content of the website. As the banner states - "Commentary on sports...and other stuff too" - and most of the changes are related to the "other stuff". I don't intend for the types of posts we make to change, so many of the additions are in the sidebar.

There is a lot of "stuff" out there that we find interesting or notable so I've added "Links to Notable Expositions, Treatises, Incidents, Blurbs & Bull Sessions" to the sidebar, a sort of blog within a blog. "Notables" will link to articles, events, discussions, etc. that have caught our eye but might not necessarily lend themselves to an entire post, at least not at that moment. The blog within a blog will be updated daily.

Scrolling a bit farther down and you will find some of the things I am reading, listening to, or watching, with links to Amazon.com Associates. Feel free to check them out, make a purchase, or make suggestions. Even further down, you will see content placed by Google AdSense. Give 'em a click, because as Tony Soprano says, "I'm just tryin' to put food on the table over here..."

Comments, questions, or suggestions on our additions or any other content? Drop us a line.

Links to Notable Expositions, Treatises, Incidents, Blurbs, & Bull Sessions

2004-08-29T19:21:00.000-05:00

A regularly updated list of what's recently caught the eye of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff. A blog within a blog.

September 3, 2004
Bill Clinton suffered a heart attack and is slated to have bypass surgery. Since the situation seems to be stabilized....Show of hands, who had today in the "Bill Clinton to Have Bypass Surgery" Pool? And am I the only one that thinks he might be faking it in order to get out of going on a trip with Hillary?

September 2, 2004
A few days ago I received an invite to Gmail, Google's attempt at web-based email. So far, the concept seems to be excellent. I have a set of friends that likes to exchange emails for days on end, with each email attempting to outdo the harrassing insults of the previous one (great friends right?) or talk trash, and the manner in which Gmail groups emails together in a "converation" format is perfect. If you can get your hands on an invite, I highly recomment it.

August 30, 2004...
...The Pearly Gates points out a column on SI.com lamenting the shrinking attendance figures at Turner Field despite the Braves success this year (both an annual phenomenon) and ponders the root cause. It's something I have always wondered about as well. The best answer I can come up with is that the only thing Southerners even begin to approach fanatacism on is being Southerners. College football is a close second and third comes NASCAR. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy living in the South amongst Southerners, they are a good people, but I think they are just too laid back to perseverate over a team the way Northeasterners can.

...When you have a videotape, why is DNA needed? "Well Mrs. Wilson, we have been able to positively identify the fecal matter that hit you in the head, and it was from Boyd Tinsley and not Dave Matthews."

...Tony Kornheiser is reminded of scenes from Old School while watching Olympic gymanstics. I can't believe I didn't think of that, Paul Hamm sucking on a Marlboro while on the rings should have come to mind immediately. Maybe that humorous image will help me forget about the 47 hours of Olympic coverage residing on my Replay TV hard drive recorded by The Missus, leaving little room for Baseball Tonight and Decisive Battles.

August 29, 2004...
...An interesting discussion has developed over a post at Shallow Center regarding the re-emergence of R.E.M. To this day, whenever I hear any song from R.E.M.'s Automatic for the People, I am automatically (of course) reminded of sophomore year of college.

...Michael Berquist of A Citizen's Blog fame is turning his attention to the Eagles, with an analysis of the Eagles defense. Long live Jim Johnson.

...Thirty-five years ago today, the Internet was created. However, this account makes no mention of Al Gore being there at the time.

...The Chicago Tribune previews the fall prime time TV schedule on the major networks. Some of it may end up being entertaining to watch, but in the end isn't everyone's interest in non-sports television 'mezza morta' until The Sopranos returns?

...For those of you that are afraid of (or looking forward to) the Republican Convention in New York City turning into a car crash, you can crane your neck at GOP and the City, a blog written by a "Missouri-born, Tennessee-raised, New York-Republican" volunteering at the convention.

Payne @ Pinehurst

2004-08-29T08:33:00.000-05:00

The Story
Part of any golfer's summer reading list should be Payne At Pinehurst: The Greatest U.S. Open Ever by Bill Chastain. The book recounts the 1999 U.S. Open, a duel between two of my favorite golfers, Payne Stewart and Phil Mickelson. The tournament came down to the 72nd hole, with Payne Stewart holing a twenty-foot putt to win.

Added to the drama of the tight competition was the human interest story of Phil Mickelson, an expectant father with a wife due at any moment. Mickelson carried a beeper with him throughout the tournament and vowed he would withdraw the moment he found out his wife was going into labor, despite being in the hunt for his first major (at the time, Mickelson was still carrying the mantle of Best Player to Never Have Won a Major).

The Mickelsons gave birth several days after the U.S. Open ended, but unfortunately the story did not have the same type of ending for the Stewart family. Later in the year, the story truly ended, tragically with Stewart dying in a plane crash.

Certain events in life are so strong in your memory that you remember exactly where you were when they transpired. They could be events that changed the world, events that changed your life, or events that simply meant a lot to you because of enjoyment or sadness. I remember exactly where I was when I watched the 1999 U.S. Open and I remember exactly where I was when I learned of Payne Stewart's death.

What Tiger Woods Could Learn From Payne Stewart
Most modern golf professionals have had swing coaches. Stewart was no different, mostly employing Chuck Cook. At one point in the 1990's, Stewart and Cook had a falling out and stopped working together. Eventually, Stewart realized he was at least partially to blame and called Cook to make peace and reunite. Stewart went on to win the 1999 U.S. Open. Similarly, Tiger Woods has had a much publicized feud with the swing coach that worked with him through his best play, Butch Harmon. Many have speculated that if Tiger Woods would simply make piece and reunite with Harmon, he would return to the play that made him the clear cut best player in the world.

Cook made very few changes to Stewart's swing during the years they worked together, but one change he did make was to have Stewart fade the ball. Cook did some research into the great players in history and determined that 90% of them faded the ball (a slight left to right curve in mid-air), rather than draw the ball (the opposite, a slight right to left curve in mid-air). Tiger Woods insists on drawing the ball. It's possible that if Woods were to begin hitting a fade, which often sacrifices a few yards for better control, his accuracy would greatly improve (Woods ranks 175th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, hitting just over 50% of his fairways).

My Threesome Can Beat Your Threesome
One of the reasons I followed Payne Stewart's career was the fact that as a student athlete at Southern Methodist, he belonged to the same fraternity I did at James Madison. Certain members of my chapter were impressed that Scott Bakula, Deane Smith, John Ritter, "Skip" Caray, and Bobby Rahal were "Fijis". For me, the fact that Hale Irwin, Jack Nicklaus, and Payne Stewart were Fijis was much more impressive. These things are very impressive when you are 20, are they not?

A Non-Phan's Take on the Phillies

2004-08-27T08:51:00.000-05:00

Last night I had a lengthy phone conversation with one of my best friends, an ardent sports fan, particularly of the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Atlanta Braves. We discussed his wedding and honeymoon from a month ago, and he was rather amused to hear about how the deck lanterns he gave to me for being a groomsman were mistaken for bombs by the O'Hare airport security (seriously though, they look exactly like something Wile E. Coyote would have purchased from Acme Grenade Company). The conversation then turned to the NL East and then I was rather amused (and depressed) by his take on the Phillies:

"You know you are in trouble when your manager is your clubhouse cancer."

Bonds (Not Barry)

2004-08-26T14:30:00.000-05:00

Off Wing Opinion reports on the latest reports regarding the Expos reportedly imminent move to the Washington DC/Northern Virginia metro area.

Placating Peter Angelos is just one of the issues Major League Baseball has to address before the move can become possible. It appears that the Virginia General Assembly (the first representative legislature in America) may not be willing to issue the bonds necessary to finance the Northern Virginia option, which is also the option Angelos would probably put up less of a fight over. Governor Mark Warner (D) is a supporter of public financing for baseball, which should help if the issue ever comes to public attention outside of Northern Virginia, but there is no telling how the Assembly will act. After all this is a Republican controlled legislature that recently voted to raise taxes at a time when the state is experiencing budget surpluses.

Blueprint for the Rest of 2004 and 2005

2004-08-26T00:20:00.000-05:00

Many of the Phillies pundits are beginning to turn their attention to next year, and hopefully the Phillies Brain Trust is doing the same. While I think improvements in certain areas are imperative, I do not think wiping the slate clean and starting all over again is necessary. The following is not a season review (it is only August 25th), but it is my recommendations to Ed Wade and David Montgomery from August 2004 to March 2005 in four parts: Everyday players, pitchers, minors/bench, and coaching.

Everyday Players
Though the offense has been maddeningly inconsistent at times - scoring 10 runs one night and getting shut out the next - but overall the offense has been good, ranking 4th in the league as a whole. Taking Citizen's Bank Park out of the equation, the Phils rank 5th on the road in runs scored. Much of the inconsistency is due to a high strike out total (which may not make a difference in the end) and poor performance with runners on base - and even worse when they are in scoring position. On the bright side, the Phillies batting average with runners in scoring position has to regress (or in this case, progress) to the mean, and high strikeout totals reduces the number of double plays. How is that for optimism?

First base - Some are calling for Jim Thome to be traded. Blasphemy. Thome is on pace for about 25 Win Shares, a total which usually equates to somewhere between an MVP-type year and a good year. Sure you can find holes in his numbers, but if you looked hard enough, you could find holes in Barry Bonds' numbers. Put Thome in the heart of the lineup and concentrate on real problems.

Second base - For the rest of 2004, I advocate playing Placido Polanco if it is possible for him to finish in the top 50% of his position, and then thank him for his yeoman service and let him walk in the offseason. If Polanco finishes the season in the top 50% of his position and then leaves in the offseason via free agency, the Phillies will get a compensatory draft pick. Several questions need to be answered for this strategy to be truly viable: What measure(s) constitutes the top 50%? What is considered Polanco's position? 2B? 3B? If it isn't possible for Polanco to finish in the top 50%, then the obvious stance to take is to make Chase Utley the starter now.

Third base - David Bell is what he is - an injury-prone player that plays well when not hobbled with injuries - and sometimes he even plays well in spite of that (Bell is on pace for 17-19 Win Shares, a good season's total in limited play). Is his contract too large and too long? Certainly and certainly, but trading him is not an option for those very reasons. My recommendation would be to stick with him and make sure you have a solid back-up.

Shortstop - Jimmy Rollins is another Phillie on track for a 17 to 19 Win Share season, which represents a rebound from his last two campaigns. He has cut down on his strikeout totals, increased his on-base percentage, and has played very good defense. Ideally, Rollins would not be batting in the leadoff position, but doing so is not the end of the world. My recommendation: Find a better leadoff hitter option (see Centerfield) so that Rollins can bat 2nd or in the lower third of the order. Also, begin to groom an heir from the minor leagues because 2004's improvement may be a fluke and if it isn't, Rollins will soon become too expensive.

Left Field - Before injury sidelined Pat Burrell, he was rebounding nicely from his nightmare 2003 season. He was still inconsistent at the plate, but if you had told anyone who follows the Phillies that Burrell would have accumulated 18 HR's and 68 RBI with a .833 OPS by August 3rd (his last game of the 2004 season), they would have gone down on bended knee and thanked their higher power. Recommendation: Pick up the tab on his surgery and put him in the heart of the lineup for 2005.

Centerfield - Significant upgrades need to be made here. Marlon Byrd was given the job in spring training, then lost the job and was sent back to Triple AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre, and then finally brought back up in August and picked right up where he left off with a sub-.700 OPS. Some may say Byrd's crash was his own doing, some say Larry Bowa jerked him around, and some say he was never really a great prospect to begin with, but the truth is probably a combination of all those factors. Regardless, Marlon Byrd is no longer the Phillies centerfielder of the future and should now be viewed as either trade bait or a minor-league philler. Recommendation: If the price on potential free-agent Carlos Beltran is too high (which it almost certainly will be), package Byrd (with Brett Myers and Ryan Howard?) for a trade for a centerfielder that can bat in the one- or two-spot. After Beltran, the list of free agent centerfielders is mighty thin.

Right Field - Bobby Abreu ranks second only to Barry Bonds in terms of Win Shares among NL outfielders with 27, on pace for 33 or 34, a great season total. Many suggest that based on his abilities to get on base and then steal more, Abreu is better suited to the leadoff position. But, his .927 career OPS belongs in the three-spot. Recommendation: Get more baserunners in front of him to drive in.

Catcher - For much of the season I've stuck up for Mike Lieberthal, but even I can't deny that the Phillies need to begin to plan for the future. Lieberthal has had a career .787 OPS, but next year Lieberthal will be 33 years old and there are few, if any, catchers whose offense gets better the deeper they get into their 30's. Lieberthal's defense also draws criticism, but I guarantee that when Joe Kerrigan leaves town, Lieby's arm will resurface. Recommendation: Begin to plan for the future by grooming Carlos Ruiz and Jason Jaramillo (see Bench/Minors below).

Pitchers
Like centerfield, significant attention needs to be paid to this part of the team, probably more so than any other aspect. Entering the 2004 season, most people felt that the Phillies pitching staff would be one of the best in baseball with 5 good but not great starters and a bullpen with 4 million career saves. But, as the old saying goes, that's why they play the games. Through August 25, the Phillies rank 13th in the National League in team ERA (4.66). But before you blame Citizen's Bank Park for the inflated ERA, the Phillies have a 4.73 ERA on the road, still ranked 13th. The Phillies offense scores a lot of runs, so if the pitching were to perform even average, the Phillies would probably still be playing for something in September.

Starters - The primary starters for the Phillies in 2004 have been Kevin Millwood (free agent), Randy Wolf, Eric Milton (free agent), Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers, Paul Abbot, and Corey Lidle, all of which have increased their career ERA's (except Milton, who is right at his career ERA despite switching to a more pitching-friendly league) and many have been injured. Recommendations: Fire Joe Kerrigan and Larry Bowa. Let Millwood and Lidle walk; don't let Paul Abbot come back; offer Eric Milton 4th-starter-type money and not 1st- or 2nd-starter money, and if he won't take it, find someone who will and can put up a 4.75 ERA; take Ryan Madson out of the bullpen and place him in the rotation; take the money Millwood's money and sign Carl Pavano, even if you have to overpay him because it will strengthen the Phils while weakening the Fish; if Myers can't be packaged in a trade for a centerfielder, then move him to the 'pen.

Bullpen - Like the starting rotation, the bullpen has not lived up to expectations, much of it due to injuries to key players forcing other pitchers into roles for which they are unsuited. Fortunately, a bullpen is an area of a team where you can save money and improve it at the same time (many teams do it every year). Recommendations: Fire Joe Kerrigan and Larry Bowa; let Roberto Horrendez, Rheal Cormier (French for "over-priced gas can"), Todd Jones, and Felix Rodriguez (the 3.15 million he is due for next year is just too much) walk; pick up the option on Billy Wagner; Insert Gavin Floyd into the bullpen - I like the idea of easing pitching prospects into the rotation (first-year quarterbacks are rarely expected to start, why should we expect young pitchers?) - using him as a starter only after the All-Star break if someone goes down with an injury; as I stated earlier, move Brett Myers to the pen where he can hopefully manage to focus for just one inning; fill in the rest of the pen with cheap help the way other successful teams do, no more 3 million dollar incendiary devices thank you very much; groundball specialists or high percentage strikeout pitchers would be preferable in order to negate CBP's short porches.

Bench/Minors
The only glaring problem with the Phillies bench in 2004 is that they have been used too often due to poor play and injuries by starters. Tomas Perez, Todd Pratt, and Doug Glanville are free agents. Given the expected departure of Placido Polanco, Chase Utley's expected role as a starter, and David Bell's fragile constitution, signing Perez or someone like him his important. Perez does not have numbers or skills that overly impress, but one skill and talent he does have - he can play every infield position - is something every team needs, especially the Phillies. Todd Pratt's role is also important, backing up an aging starter. However, does it make sense to back up an aging starter with an aging backup? Perhaps the Phillies should let Pratt go and try to use someone else who can start more often (little known fact: Lieberthal has a $7.5m option for 2006, it vests with 1300PA in 2003-5 or 850PA 2004-5 or 475PA in 2005...in 2006 Lieberthal will be 35 years old, at which point his knees may not even bend anymore). And then there is Douggie...I think Doug Glanville would be a great guy to grab a beer and hang out with, he seems like a sharp and witty guy, but unfortunately, Glanville's skills just don't warrant a major league roster spot. My recommendation: sign Glanville as the engineer in charge of moving the Citizens Bank Park outfield walls back 10 feet. Additionally, re-acquire Rickey Ledee as a free agent, he makes for a good left-handed bat of the bench and for some reason he likes playing for the Phillies.

Manager/Coaches
Fire them all. It's too late to make any difference for 2004, but for Mr. Montgomery or Mr. Wade to wait one minute longer than the last out of the season would just be prolonging the inevitable. Over a month ago, I first speculated that Larry Bowa was no match for the Braves manager and if Walt Weiss's recent comments in the Rocky Mountain News are any indication, my speculation was more of a prediction. When an entire team underperforms, the managers and coaching staff have to be held accountable. So do the players and owners, but the owners aren't going to fire themselves and you can't replace all of the players. Suggestions on a new manager? Davey Johnson. He is an ex-Phillie with an appreciation for statistics/long-ball and is rather even keeled. Many of us have noticed that the coaching pendulum in sports swings from "easy going players coach" to "tough disciplinarian"...I think we know which way this pendulum is swinging.

Any questions Messrs. Wade and Montgomery?

There's always next year

2004-08-24T17:11:00.000-05:00

The Phillies have a lot of work to do for 2005. Most notably, the Phillies need a centerfielder to hit at the top of the order and a couple of starting pitchers.

I tracked down a list of potential free agents here.

We'll assume the Phightins bring back Eric Milton and let Kevin Millwood go. We'll also assume that Billy Wagner is coming back in the bullpen. With lefties Eric Milton and Randy Wolf, the Phillies most likely would want to target a right-handed starter or two. Pedro Martinez will be available, but one would guess that there will be a bidding war between the Red Sox, his current team, and the Yankees.

One pitcher of note is Carl Pavano of the Marlins. He currently sits at 14-5 with a 2.97 ERA. He has established himself as the ace of the staff, when he was only supposed to be their fourth or fifth best starter at this point, behind Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Brad Penny (who was traded to the Dodgers and promptly went on the DL) and Dontrelle Willis. Adding him to the rotation would not only improve the Phillies, but hurt the Marlins, a chief divisional rival. Matt Clement of the Cubs, Matt Morris and Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals and the Twins' Brad Radke will be looking for new deals, as well.

Carlos Beltran is the obvious choice in centerfield. Steve Finley isn't getting any younger and is likely to return to Arizona this winter. The man Beltran replaced, Craig Biggio, is also getting up there in age. Marquis Grissom? Wow, other than Beltran, this sounds like a list of candidates to replace Rafael Palmeiro in the Viagra ads.

The Phillies can sign at least one high-profile free agent this winter without significantly raising payroll. Millwood comes off the books along with his $11 million. Placido Polanco ($3.95 million) has his contract expire, as well, and Chase Utley is ready to step into his starting role. Rheal Cormier ($3 million) is the only other player making significant money with an expiring deal.

These are just some of the moves the Phillies might consider. Hopefully, whatever the braintrust is after this season can put their heads together and fix this team.

Myers as a closer

2004-08-24T16:42:00.000-05:00

An interesting article on Phillies.com noted that Brett Myers may be better suited for closer role.

While he may seem to have a make-up for that, most of his troubles have come from an inability to locate his pitches. A simple move to the bullpen would not necessarily fix that.

Statistically, however, most of his trouble comes in innings 4-6, but he doesn't exactly light the world on fire in the first inning, either. Batters hit him to the tune of .273 the first inning.

Myers' 2004 has not - as can be said for the entire rotation - gone according to plan. Coming into the season, he was thought of by many as perhaps the best fifth starter not named Clement.

You have to give him credit, he's been consistent. Consistently bad. Other than May, when he posted a 2.96 ERA, he has not had a month in which he had lower than a 5.01 mark. Horrendous. And, that 5.01 ERA is in the current month of August. Tonight, he squares off with the equally combustible Carlos Hernandez in Houston.

Just as bad, Myers is actually second among the Phillies starters in ERA this month. Only Vicente Padilla and his 4.76 August mark rate better. Milton is at 5.11, Wolf 5.29 and Lidle (7.08) must be gunning to match his shoe size.

Contraptions

2004-08-24T15:01:00.000-05:00

Balls Sticks & Stuff has mostly defended Ed Wade, but we are not drinking the Kool-Aid so much as to think Ed Wade is the best general manager in baseball, far from it. But if you would like to read a bit about one of the best - if not the best - general manager in baseball, direct yourself to Athletics Nation's three part interview with Billy Beane. If only the Phillies had such creative and forward thinking as this:

Blez: Are you concerned about injury problems with Huddy with that recurring oblique?

BB: That thing has popped up two different years. When it happened again, especially around that time of the season, it really raised everybody’s eyebrows and Timmy’s included. It’s strange to have everything else be healthy and then the hip be such an issue. The reason it has injuries is because he is so powerful. He’s so strong with his hip rotation and his drive. Rick Peterson measured it at the institute and he has the most powerful hip rotation in the league and because of that, that hip breaks down. We actually ordered a machine. It’s probably going to be named the Hudson Machine now. It’s a machine that specifically targets that area of the body. We realized that it’s like Achilles, to be so good and so powerful and have one small area of the body break down. And with this most recent injury, we were really conservative. That’s why we were slow to have him return. We were very concerned and that’s why we went out and ordered a big contraption to have it taken care of it for the rest of his career. We’ll cross our fingers.

Of course, if the Phillies were to acquire a contraption to manage the careers of their pitchers, it would be a Lobotomy Machine.

Scream for Wins

2004-08-23T18:03:00.000-05:00

Certain sports teams have had a song with which they have been associated. I can remember as a child the 1980 Phillies aptly celebrating their World Series victory to "Celebrate" by Kool & The Gang. As an even younger child I can remember "We Are Family" by Sister Sledge accompanying the Pittsburgh Pirates of the 1970's. At roughly the same time I was entering puberty (some of my best friends will say I haven't left it yet), rap was entering into American pop culture and the great 1985 Chicago Bears team did the "Super Bowl Shuffle". Of today's sports, probably the most appropriate relationship between a team and a song would be the intro to the Law & Order television series and the Baltimore Ravens.

If a song was associated to the 2004 Philadelphia Phillies, what would it be? Several days ago I suggested Bobby Brown was probably going through Larry Bowa's head, but as the Phillies head to Houston to take on the Astros for a three game set, Ben Arthur's "Keep Me Around" might be emanating from the cabin speakers in the team's chartered jet:

Knit a sweater of my hair
String a necklace of teeth
Or just lean me there
On the backporch where
I can feel the breeze

Keep me around
My whole life long
And when I’m gone
Don’t you bury my bones
Keep me around

It’s not that I’m jealous
I’d jut make a lovely stand for umbrellas
And you can toss your keys
Into the caps of my knees
When you come back from town

Pickle my fingers in liquor
Leave them roll in a drawer
And you can hang your clothes
From hooks made of my toes
On the back of the door

Keep me around

Summer is contemplating about fading into autumn and those of us that follow the Phillies are beginning to contemplate about our fantasy football drafts. If the Phils are going to make us phorget about who to take with our first pick, they need to sweep the Astros just like they swept the Brewers because the Phillies arrived in Houston 8.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and 6 games behind the two-man team known as the San Francisco Giants. On paper the pitching matchups do not favor the Phils Monday night with Corey Lidle taking on Roger Clemens, Tuesday night the odds get a bit better with Brett Myers facing Carlos Hernandez and on Wednesday with Eric Milton against Peter Munro.

Incidentally, if you are wondering what will grace the album cover of the 2004 Phillies soundtrack, look no further, Brown just delivered it to my doorstep:

The Scream by Edvard Munch

Around the BlogosPHere

2004-08-23T14:31:00.000-05:00

@ The Berks Phillies Fans have returned. While the primary contributor J. Michael Weitzel has not given up on the Phillies, it seems he has given up on the single life. Stop by and pad his hit counter.

@ An interesting discussion involving strikeout ridden lineups has evolved over at The Phillies Fan. Anyone who has spent a cold February evening with Diamond Mind Baseball should check it out.

@ A Citizen's Blog runs his regular sabermetrically oriented statistics report for the Phillies. Despite their poor won/loss record over the past month, their offensive statistics aren't too...offensive.

@ Fire Bowa presents the best Phillies of all time in the format of a 40-man roster. If you are still change the channel when Scott Rolen comes to bat, you may want to stay away.

@ Phinally, Balls, Sticks, & Stuff recently discovered Blowa. Earmuffs boys and girls, earmuffs.

Free Check-up

2004-08-23T08:47:00.000-05:00

The Phillies turned their heads and coughed for Marcus Hayes's piece in Monday morning's Daily News. Some players passed the test, some failed.

Chase Utley passed:

Chase Utley has become an assassin.

His bases-loaded triple in the eighth won Saturday's game over the Brewers. His bases-loaded, pinch-hit single yesterday in the 10th scored two runs that meant the game and a Phillies sweep.

Utley moved to .278 on the season with a whopping 51 RBI in just 209 at-bats. Extrapolated, that runs to about 122 RBI in a 500 at-bat season.

"That's unbelievable," manager Larry Bowa marveled.

And Utley's batting .455 as a pinch-hitter with three homers and 11 RBI. All this in his first extended season in the majors.

Todd Jones passed:

Reliever Todd Jones strode menacingly off the mound yesterday and woofed at the Brewers' Bill Hall on second base to stop stealing signs. It was the eighth inning, the score tied 4-4, one out with Ben Grieve at the plate, and Jones warned Hall to knock off what ticks him off the most or Jones would plant one on Grieve's body.

That's the type of mental toughness the Phillies could use more of, particularly Vicente Padilla, who failed:

When Magruder's pinch-hit double sank under Jason Michaels' glove in leftfield to break a tie in the fifth inning Saturday night, starter Vicente Padilla looked to the heavens, rolled his eyes...and fell apart.

Padilla proceeded to repeatedly shake off catcher Mike Lieberthal, throw 20 fastballs in 22 pitches and give up two more doubles and four more runs - an especially questionable course since his fastball, clocked at 94 early in the game, petered out in that inning to around 88, a vestige of his 10 weeks on the disabled list.

And for Amaury Telemaco, it wasn't so much a matter of passing or failing, but a matter of survival:

...on the nearly ultra-painful grounder that he took off the inside of his left thigh Saturday, perhaps limiting his ability to procreate after fathering two children: "I'm done. I was done before the game."

John Kruk declined to comment for this post.

Bobby Bowa

2004-08-20T12:26:00.000-05:00

Everybody's talkin' all this stuff about me
Why don't they just let me live?
I don't need commission, make my own decisions
That's my prerogative

They say I'm crazy
I really don't care
That's my prerogative
They say I'm nasty
But I don't give a damn
Getting girls is how I live

If it wasn't for that last line, I might actually think that Bobby Brown was going through Larry Bowa's head as he woke up this morning. Indeed, everybody's talkin' all this stuff about "Bo". All forms of media in all parts of the country have been speculating about Larry Bowa's termination. After every loss, the speculation increases, and every day, Bowa is still in charge. The rumors are actually flying so fast, that Peter Gammons can't keep up with himself. On Wednesday, Gammons reported that Bowa would survive to manage next season, but that his coaching staff would be wiped clean. Then on last night's Baseball Tonight, Gammons reported that Phillies players have been calling players on other teams and telling them that Bowa will be fired Friday afternoon. What did these players think when Bowa was standing in the entrance to the plane that was to take the team to Milwaukee greeting them like a flight attendant? "Hi there...hello...hi there...good to see you...thanks for losing with us...hello..."

When a season goes such as this one, there is no one person or cause to blame. It's a collective failure, hitters, pitchers, coaches, general managers - everyone. And while everyone can't be replaced, some people can. Fire Bowa now, replacing him in the interim with Charlie Manuel, and then in the offseason replace the rest of the coaches and find a permanent manager. By replacing Bowa now, there is a chance that Wade and Manuel and Arbuckle and Monty can find something out about this team that will help them fix it for next year.

Firing Bowa on August 20, 2004 won't save this season, but it might save 2005's.

Blame Murphy

2004-08-20T12:12:00.000-05:00

Negatives from yesterday's 12-10 loss to the Astros:
- Todd Pratt hit into a triple play.
-Three consecutive releif pitchers gave up runs.
-The season is one day closer to being over.

Positives from yesterday's 12-10 loss to the Astros:
+The season is one day closer to being over.

News, Notes, & Quotes

2004-08-19T11:19:00.000-05:00

The Phillies continued their slide Wednesday night, losing to the Astros 9-8. Twice the Astros came back against the Phillies, erasing a 3 run deficit in the 4th inning and a one run deficit in the 8th. The loss dropped the Phillies 9.5 games behind the NL East leading Braves and 6.5 games behind the Wild Card frontrunner, the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies have lost 6 in a row and 8 of their last 10...

...Carlos Beltran drove in the two winning RBI in Wednesday night's contest, which brings a certain bit of irony since the Phillies apparently tried to acquire Carlos Beltran recently. Peter Gammons reported on ESPN.com yesterday that Beltran was placed on waivers, the Phillies claimed him, but the two teams could not reach a deal...

...In attempting to deal for Beltran, Phillies brass has apparently decided that Marlon Byrd is ideally not the player they would prefer to have in centerfield for the long-term. Additionally, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that Charlie Manuel is again scouting the Rangers after having scouted the team during the run up to the July 31st trading deadline. Manuel appears to be evaluating Gary Matthews, Jr. (no where near his father's rank of sergeant) for centerfield as well as Brian Jordan...

...If the Phillies do make a deal it is possible that the price, or part of the price, could be Placido Polanco. Numerous sources are reporting that he has also cleared waivers. The Angels reportedly have some interest in Polanco, and the Athletics still do after a flirtation in July, and if the Astros can move Jeff Kent, its possible that Polanco may become part of a deal that could re-materialize there...

...Ed Wade was non-committal in his committment to Larry Bowa, "Bo' is our manager...You can interpret that any way you want." Balls, Sticks, & Stuff knows how phans would like to interpret it...

...Jayson Stark and Bill "One Chair" Conlin have recently commented on how the Pharm system is not nearly as phull as we have been lead to believe. In today's Philadelphia Inquirer, Jim Salisbury has written a piece which appears to have originated straight from the Phillies P.R. department. The story examines the "high ceiling" of Scott Mathieson, the Phillies 17th round pick in 2002. Mike Arbuckle gushes about Mathieson's body-type ("we aren't selling jeans here!"), arm strength, and overall make-up. All of this may very well be true, but 91 K's, 46 BB's, 111 H's in 110 innings is not an Untouchable in the making.

That's a Good Team on the DL

2004-08-18T21:16:00.000-05:00

Today, on the XM Radio feed of ESPN News, Brian Kenney interviewed former Mets general manager Steve Phillips. Both Kenney and Phillips agreed that there is no team that depends on two players more than the San Francisco Giants depend on Barry Bonds and Jason Schmidt.

For the most part, when analysts make sweeping statements such as this I immediately become skeptical. Sure, that statement seems plausible given the headlines we hear and read daily, but do the numbers bear that out? Now, I'm not someone who believes that baseball teams should be managed strategically and tactically by using only statistical measures, but I do believe they tell a significant part of the story. Essentially, on the spectrum of baseball philosophy, I settle in a bit closer to Rob Neyer than Joe Morgan. I've played enough sports to know that chemistry and attitude and athletic abilities are fundamental elements of every play in every game, but I've also suffered through enough statistical courses in academia to know that statistics are a wonderful tool that brings objectivity to subjective arguments.

So, because the usual early evening thunderstorm prevented me from stopping at the golf course on the way home (central Virginia has had more rain this summer than Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco combined), I decided to fire up the Balls, Sticks, & Stuff primary research tool and statistical processor and check out the numbers and see if Kenney and Phillips were at least close to being right.

Using The Hardball Times statistics, I decided to informally examine the 2004 win shares above average (WSAA) for players on the teams competing for a playoff spot. The Hardball Times explains wins shares in great detail, but essentially, for every 3 win shares a player accumulates, one win his team accumulates can be attributed to that player. According to THT, WSAA compares "each player's total Win Shares to the Win Shares an average player would have received, given that player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field."

For most teams, the players are distributed fairly evenly, gradually ranging from 8 to 10 WSAA leading most teams down to -5 or -7 WSAA. But for the Giants, the subjective observations seem to be true. Bonds has a National League leading 26 WSAA and Jason Schmidt ranks tenth (first among pitchers) with 10 WSAA. The next closest Giant is J.T. Snow with just 5 WSAA, ranking 35th in the National League. In other words, if you were to replace Bonds and Schmidt with "average" major league baseball players, the Giants record would be 55-68 instead of 67-56. No other team is even remotely similar.

Expanding the comparisons to "non-contending" teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Randy Johnson (8 WSAA, 13th in the NL) stand out. The next closest to The Unit is Richie Sexson (who has missed most of the year with an injury) with one win share. It's no wonder the Diamondbacks are so bad.

But another team that seems to stray away from the trend of even WSAA distribution? The Philadelphia Phillies. Bobby Abreu has far and away more WSAA than any other Phillie with 14, ranking behind only Bonds and Scott Rolen in the NL, both season MVP favorites. As one would expect, Jim Thome is the next closest Phillie to Abreu with 6 WSAA (17th in the NL). And now the depressing part for the phans. After Abreu and the distant second Thome comes Ryan Madson (4 WSAA, hasn't played in weeks), David Bell (3 WSAA, has also missed significant playing time due to injuries), Rickey Ledee (3 WSAA while with the Phillies, traded away nearly three weeks ago), and Billy Wagner (2 WSAA, hurt a lot is an understatement). The Phillies have almost as many WSAA on the disabled list as they do in the starting lineup.

When Bill James created Wins Shares, he attempted to create a single measure that could be used to rank baseball players. He has done a great job and those that have refined the work have also done a great job. But I think they would agree with me that baseball is too complicated a game to expect one number to tell the whole story. However, I do think that the uneven distribution of win shares on the Phillies supports what we have all known for too long, that the Phillies roster as it is currently constituted is dysfunctional.

Holy Johan!

2004-08-18T20:02:00.000-05:00

Bat-Girl chronicles the epic and eternal struggle between good and evil.

The Un-Midas Touch

2004-08-18T18:17:00.000-05:00

Ever have the feeling no one you root for wins?

The Phillies have been broken all season long (technically its longer than that, but don't get me started), playing well in stretches just long enough to make your heart over-rule your head. You do the math and you know the chances against them are very, very, high, but still you hope.

It's almost time to turn my attention to football, but what awaits me there? The Eagles have had done very well the last several years, making it to the NFC Championship three years in a row. On one hand, I am thrilled my team has been in the hunt, but each NFC title-game loss hurts more than the last. For years the Florida Gators were perennial SEC powerhouses until I began rooting for them. Almost as soon as I became a fan (I enrolled in a graduate program), Steve Spurrier left and under Ron Zook the Gators have been also-rans in the SEC.

On Sunday, I was pulling for Justin Leonard in the PGA Championship. I've rooted for Justin Leonard for a long time, he and I are similar in stature, roughly the same age, and have similar games - not the longest of hitters, keep the ball in play, get it on the green, par is a good score (the only difference in our games is that he is infinitely better at all of those things). On the back nine, he was in control until two bogies coming in. He dropped into a three-hole playoff with Vijay Singh and Chris DiMarco and lost to Singh by one shot in the playoff.

Notice a pattern here?

Me too. No one I root for ever wins. The teams I follow might win a game, but they don't win it all. It's been since April since I had a significant win, Phil Mickelson in the Masters, and before Phil there was... Anyway, there were lots of headlines at the time exalting Mickelson's breakthrough in the majors, but there could have just as easily been a headline on The Onion, "Hapless Fan in Richmond Finally has Something in Sports to Smile About."

And so it is with great pride that Balls, Sticks,& Stuff can announce that the mascot of my primary alma mater, the James Madison University Duke Dog is in the finals of the Capitol One Mascot of the Year contest. Fans can go online and vote between October 11 and December 26, 2004, for who they think should be Mascot of the Year. To quote Mayor Daley of Chicago, "Vote early, vote often."

Hey, everyone has got to hang their hat on something.

Winning Math

2004-08-18T10:09:00.000-05:00

The Richmond area has had an inordinate amount of rainfall this summer. It's gotten to the point that most central Virginians are saying things like, "another day, another thunderstorm". Coincidentally, Phillies fans are beginning to utter a similar statement, "another day, another loss".

Tuesday night's loss to the Astros is summarized nicely by number of sources and Marcus Hayes does a fine job in Wednesday's Philadelphia Daily News. After reading the article, I came away with this take home message:

Larry Bowa has stayed up a lot of nights analyzing the Phillies woes and has decided that you need to score at least one run to win a ballgame.

Someone call Bill James.

Dues and Don'ts

2004-08-17T12:29:00.000-05:00

Several weeks ago I pointed to an article in the New York Times that touched on the history of teams making the playoffs when down by "X" amount of games on July 31st and the bottom line was that the Phillies needed to get their act in gear. In today's Philadelphia Inquirer, Todd Zolecki runs a similar piece:

The Atlanta Braves had an eight-game lead over the Phillies entering last night. Chicago, San Diego and San Francisco - in a three-way tie for the wild-card lead - had a 41/2-game lead.

Since 1963, just 11 of 158 playoff teams (7 percent) have overcome deficits of at least 41/2 games on Aug. 16 to make the postseason. The Phillies were involved in two of those races.

In 1980, Pittsburgh had a 41/2-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. The Phillies went 31-18 on their way to winning the World Series. In 1964, the Phillies had a nine-game lead over St. Louis. The Cardinals went 31-14, the Phillies finished 22-25.

In one of Bob Rotella's books, he discusses the concept of a player feeling he is "due". He recommends that a golfer who has not been making many putts should approach putting in a similar manner as a basketball player he once interviewed. In a particular game the basketball player - who was generally a great shooter - finished with a horrific shooting percentage for that particular game. Rotella asked the player why he continued to throw up shots even though it was obvious he did not have his touch that day. The player replied, "because I was due."

The Phillies have to believe they are "due". They've been saddled with a coaching staff that is just not working out and they've been decimated by injuries. Most of primary teams the Phillies have been competing with have all been playing quite well. Misfortune has been around every corner. If the Phillies are going to turn things around, they have to begin to believe they are due, that the Braves or Giants or Padres are going to come back to the earth, that there won't be any more injuries (Bell and Thome return this evening), and that the clutch hitting just has to improve.

Mr. Lieberthal, do not read this morning's Inquirer and grab a Bob Rotella book. Please.

NavBar (Not A Snack)

2004-08-17T12:12:00.000-05:00

The creative folks at Blogger/Google found some loose change in the couch and have added NavBar, found at the top of this weblog. It's a handy little tool for searching Balls, Sticks, & Stuff - just type in a search term, hit "search" and you can find everytime we've mentioned "chase utley". Please, make good use of NavBar as we are paying the same amount of money for it as we are for the 'blog.

We'll Throw in Kerrigan Too

2004-08-16T06:26:00.001-05:00

New York Post writers Kevin Kernan and Michael Morrissey speculate in the Monday edition of the Post who will manage for the Mets in 2005. One possiblity discussed is Larry Bowa. Seriously.

When does the next shuttle leave the Philadelphia airport for the Big Apple? Balls, Sticks, & Stuff will pay for a ticket. And we don't mean in October after the season is over, take him now. We'll even pay for Art Howe to fly to Philadelphia and manage the Phillies for the rest of the season. We don't even need to fly down to Clearwater to think about it.

Out on a Limb

2004-08-16T06:26:00.000-05:00

On Sunday the San Francisco Giants completed a three game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies. Vicente Padilla made the start for the Phillies and pitched well until his emotions got the better of him in the seventh inning. With Jim Thome, Pat Burrell, and David Bell out of the lineup with injuries, the Phillies put an anemic lineup on the field - Placido Polanco batted fifth. But even this anemic lineup should have been able to score more than one run against Brett Tomko. Major league hitters have hit .292 against Tomko this year and so even with a lineup that wouldn't turn any heads, one run is unacceptable.

The Phillies dropped to 8.5 games behind the Braves in the NL East and remained 4.5 games behind the Cubs. But because of San Diego's recent success against the Cubs and the Giants recent success against the Phillies, there is now a three-way tie for the Wild Card lead amongst the Cubs, Padres, and Giants. The chances of the Phillies putting together enough of a run of wins to overtake all three of those teams looks less likely every day.

However, Balls, Sticks, & Stuff still has enough faith in the Phillies to say that, without a doubt, the Phillies will NOT lose on Monday.

Another Nail

2004-08-14T18:20:00.000-05:00

Saturday's loss to the Giants dropped the Phillies 8 games behind the Braves in the NL East and 4.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card standing.

More discouraging than the news of the loss was the news of Jim Thome's shoulder injury. At this point, the injury will be evaluated on a day to day basis and there are no plans as of now to place the heart and soul of the Phillies on the disabled list.

Wonder what the Phillies chances will be without Jim Thome? Check out the lineup used on Saturday while Thome sat out.

Stumblings, Rumblings, & Grumblings

2004-08-14T09:31:00.000-05:00

I returned to the Balls, Sticks, & Stuff home office Friday evening after a night out at the movies curious to see how the Phillies faired against the Giants. After seeing that both teams were stumbling to a 16-6 outcome, I disgustedly turned my attention to Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings, which I found to be chalked full oj juicy tidbits from around baseball. The Expos move to DC/NoVa and the Larry Walker trade were all touched on, but it was the "Phillies Rumblings" I found most interesting. Stark recants many of the issues Ed Wade ran into while trying to improve the Phillies at the trade deadline and then brings up another issue that I have not seen raised in the media or the blogosPHere:

Because Phillies GM Ed Wade wouldn't talk about dealing pitching megaprospects Gavin Floyd or Cole Hamels at the trade deadline, the perception of Wade in Philadelphia is that he's a guy who won't trade prospects. Ironically, the perception of him around baseball these days is that he might have traded too many prospects.

Just since last winter, the Phillies have traded Taylor Buchholz, Ezequiel Astacio, Nick Punto, Bobby Korecki, Elizardo Ramirez, Alfredo Simon, Javon Moran, Joe Wilson and Anderson Machado -- in deals that brought them Billy Wagner, Eric Milton, Todd Jones, Felix Rodriguez and Cory Lidle. So the reality is, they suddenly don't have much left above their very lowest levels.

"They're getting dangerously close to having an inability to go out and acquire players," said one NL scouting director, "other than signing free agents, just because they have so few projectable young players left."

If you don't count their short-season teams and their Lakewood club in the South Atlantic League, the scouting director said, "they're down to like three guys in the whole system" -- Hamels, Floyd and Ryan Howard -- who look like impact players in the big leagues in the near future.

Lately, I've thought that even if the Phillies should somehow pull off an amazing feat and make the playoffs, the team is certainly not built for any type of run in the playoffs and that significant work needs to be done in the offseason. Since the pharm system seems to be rather thin outside of the Untouchables, the work will have to be done through free agency or adding the Untouchables to the roster as trades using prospects seems very unlikely. The free agency route may prove difficult as well, as the Phillies have several players under large long term contracts. Some budget wiggle room will be created by players leaving via free agency (Millwood and Polanco to name two, but probably not Wagner as Stark reports), but probably not enough wiggle room to address all of the holes. For the Untouchables, "the time is now" slogan might not apply to them, but "darn soon" is looking very likely.

A Little Perspective

2004-08-13T22:45:00.000-05:00

Article via the Bill Simmons's intern.
(Registration required).

Lineup Roulette

2004-08-12T22:02:00.000-05:00

You're the manager of a baseball team and your offense has been weak for weeks. You shuffle the team's lineup, moving players around in the order, and your team scores 15 runs in a game. In the very next game, what would you do? If you say you would repeat the lineup, then you would be just plum wrong and don't know what you are talking about. Larry Bowa on the other hand is a real life bona fide major league baseball manager and he knew the right thing to do was trash the lineup that scored 15 runs the night before and try a different lineup. OK, you might say, well at least he'll use the same players and just re-order them in the lineup. But no, no, says Larry Bowa, that's crazy talk, lets bench the rookie that hit a home run last night and start the career bench player with a career .665 OPS in his place.

Use the same lineup that scored 15 runs?!?
Thats crazy talk.

Needless to say, Bowa's strategy did not work out as he had hoped and the Phillies lost to the Rockies Thursday night, 3-1. On the mound, Corey Lidle made his debut in a Phillies uniform. Pitching on only three days rest and in unfamiliar surroundings, Lidle performed adequately, allowing only two runs in 5 innings. The loss dropped the Phillies to seven games behind the Braves, an almost insurmountable lead. Fortunately the Cubs lost as well, allowing the Phillies to remain "only" 3.5 games behind.

Friday night the Phillies will begin a 3 game series against Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants, one of the Phillies primary competitors in the Wild Card standings. With each day that passes, accumulating wins becomes more and more important.

Chase

2004-08-12T10:55:00.000-05:00

At first thought, having Chase Utley bat in the third slot Wednesday night may seem like a bit of a stretch. While playing well at the plate and in the field in 61 games this year, his career is not long enough to have proven himself as a run producer. In other words, he doesn't have the gravitas.

But a closer look at his statistics for this year prove it may not be such a stretch. In 187 at-bats this year, Utley has 12 HR's and 43 RBI. Extrapolated out to 500 at-bats, Utley's numbers would be 32 HR's and 114 RBI. Not too shabby, especially for a young second baseman. Additionally, Utley's .829 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) ranks third among able-bodied Phillies batters.

Sure, you'd like to have a higher on-base percentage in the three-hole (Utley is getting on base only 30% of the time) and of course extrapolating 187 at-bats to 500 AB's is certainly not the same as actually having 500 AB's. But given the Phillies other options at this point, it would be wise for Larry Bowa to continue with this lineup for at least a few more games.

Wolf to Start in Leftfield?

2004-08-11T22:17:00.000-05:00

Randy Wolf salutes the phans after his second home run of the evening.

Well, having a pitcher start in left field on his off days is a bit of a stretch, but maybe Larry Bowa should consider batting Randy Wolf higher in the lineup on the days he does pitch? Besides pitching well enough to pick up a win, Wolf clubbed two home runs in Wednesday night's game, going 3 for 3 on the night at the plate. Other Phillies batters got into the act as well with Jim Thome homering twice, Chase Utley hitting a three-run homer and Jimmy Rollins adding a two-run long ball. When the dust settled, the Phillies had beaten the Rockies 15-4. Another positive was that no Phillies were hurt in batting practice or in the game itself.

This is the kind of offensive output Phillies fans expected from the team all season long and it is certain the lineup card Bowa filled out Wednesday night will be reused Thursday, or at least a close resemblance. The first two slots were typical, Rollins followed by Polanco. Bowa then showed some creativity by moving Chase Utley up to the third slot. Jim Thome remained in the cleanup position and Bobby Abreu was dropped to fifth. Mike Lieberthal, Jason Michaels, Marlon Byrd and of course Randy Wolf finished out the lineup.

The only downside to the evening was that the Phillies win did not improve their position in the NL East or Wild Card standings as Atlanta and Chicago both won their games for the evening.

Blocked

2004-08-11T15:50:00.000-05:00

Balls, Sticks, & Stuff has been a consistent defender of Ed Wade's efforts to improve the Phillies and point out the obstacles in his way here (possibly premature), here, and here. Perhaps his only flaw is his insistence on sticking with Larry Bowa ever since October of 2003. Today, BS & S has learned that another obstacle can be added to the list: waivers. According to Jerry Crasnick at ESPN.com, the Phillies had recently struck a waiver deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks to acquire Danny Bautista. Unfortunately, an unnamed team claimed him and Arizona exercised their right to pull Bautista back off of waivers, thereby terminating the deal.

Long and Straight at Whistling Straits

2004-08-11T10:47:00.000-05:00

The venue for this year's PGA Championship, Whistling Straits, has received a lot of attention the entire season. It is a different style of golf course than most major championships played in America, and is more similar in style to the links courses in the United Kingdom used for the British Open.

The course is also garnering attention because of its expected difficulty. The course is designed by Pete Dye, well known for his difficult designs, and will be set up at over 7,500 yards, with several par-4's over 500 yards. Staying true to the links-style, the course is relatively flat and adjacent to a large body of water (in this case Lake Michigan) which is often a recipe for high velocity wind, which is the best defense for any golf course.

However, the course may not end up to be the monster that most expect. Blogger Vance, who has had the good fortune of playing Whistling Straits, offers up some past results of professional tournaments in his review of the course:

Despite its length, Whistling Straits is not as difficult as some players are making it out to be. It provides a challenge fit for a major championship. But unless the weather turns really ugly, the winning score will be under par. Keep in mind that a winning score of 1-under won the PGA Club Professional Championship when it was played at Whistling Straits in 1999. The course was set up at only 7,208 yards for the club pros (about 300 yards shorter than for this year's PGA Championship), but PGA Tour players are considerably better than club pros. Plus, technology has added 5-10 yards to drives over the past five years and the fairways are running fast.

Disturbing Trend # 367

2004-08-11T10:18:00.000-05:00

In today's Philadelphia Daily News Marcus Hayes points out yet another disturbing trend for the Phillies:

Asked whether he was overtired or hurt, Worrell, 37, replied: "I'm not hurt. And [fatigue] isn't anything I haven't dealt with at this time of the year before."
Which raises an interesting observation. Last season, Worrell's earned run average in his first 50 games was 2.03; in his last 26, it was 7.80. Worrell hit game No. 52 on Friday.

A quick check of Worrell's numbers for 2001 and 2002 do not indicate fatigue as the year wears on, but keep in mind, Worrell is 37 now, older than he has ever been before. So while he may have been able to pitch through fatigue at the age of 34 and 35, it may be possible that he couldn't last year at the age of 36. We'll find out if he can at the age of 37.

Glavine In Car Crash

2004-08-11T08:28:00.000-05:00

Thankfully, Mr. Glavine seems to be OK, but there are a few things we can learn from this story?

New York Port Authority Police are Mets fans.
Cliff Floyd has spent some time in prison and it is going to be awkward in the Mets shower after tonight's game.
Taxi driver George Kovalonoks should have gotten AFLAC because as Yogi says, "If you're hurt and can't work, it won't hurt to not work."

Squandered Opportunity

2004-08-11T06:59:00.000-05:00

It was easy for phans to blame Monday night's loss to the Rockies as a blown game by the bullpen, when in reality, it was poor clutch hitting that really did the team in. In Tuesday night's loss to the Rockies, clutch hitting somehow managed to shine, both in the 8th inning to take the lead 3-2, and in the 9th to almost (but not quite) recapture the lead, but coming up short, 4-2 with men on first and second. This time, it was the bullpen, Tim Worrell specifically, who blew his second consecutive save opportunity and gave up a run in his third consecutive appearance.

If you are one of those people that views a glass as one-third full (even optimists must concede that half full would be stretching it) then there are a few things you can hang your hat on from tonight's game. One is Vicente Padilla's start. Though he only had enough gas to go 5 innings, he gave up only one run on 3 hits, walking none and striking out five. Another would be that Jason Michaels homered, his 4th, to tie the game at 2-2 in the eighth inning. And if you are looking even further for the bright side, Chase Utley played some good defense at second base, throwing out Todd Helton at third base on a ground ball hit to the right side. Utley also made a nice block of the second sack earlier in the game as Aaron Miles failed in his attempt to steal.

While there was no change in the NL East or Wild Card standings as the Braves and Cubs lost as well, Tuesday night can be viewed as a squandered opportunity to gain ground. The Braves have won 31 of their last 41 and the Cubs have strengthened their lineup with the shortstop formerly known as Nomah and have finally gotten their vaunted pitching staff healthy. There won't be many more opportunities like Tuesday night.

The Cone of Silence

2004-08-10T16:11:00.000-05:00

Clutch hitting in baseball remains an enigma. For decades, it was assumed that clutch hitting was a skill or talent. Everyone can remember a time when a star player (more often than not star players are often thought to be clutch hitters) came up to the plate in an important situation and delivered with a base hit, scoring a runner or runners from second and/or third base. And because we can all remember such instances over the decades of modern baseball, we assume that there is such a thing as the talent for hitting in the clutch.

Then came Bill James and sabermetrics. James and others like him proved over and over again, statistically, that clutch hitting was really nothing more than luck. It's an idea that has spread because it tends to make sense when you look at the batting averages of particular batters season by season. One year, a player can be around .225, the next jump up to .305, and then down to .270. Did that player learn how to hit in the clutch one year and then sort of lose it the next? Probably not, it must just be statistical randomness, or noise as statisticians call it. But if clutch hitting is a myth, then why do we label certain players as clutch hitters? Because we tend to remember important events better than unimportant ones. A Bobby Abreu single with a runner on second to win a game in the bottom of the 9th inning is going to be more memorable than the RBI single he hits in the 4th inning when the Phillies are down by 5 runs. And for some reason, we don't remember the way Ryan Madson came in and shut down an opponents rally the way we remember the game winning hits. After all isn't a situation that is thought of to be clutch for a hitter also a clutch situation for the pitcher he is facing? Seen any clutch pitching studies lately?

So clutch hitting is a myth, right? Maybe. Statistical studies recently mentioned in a Hardball Times article suggest that there may actually be something to clutch hitting, it may be measurable and it may be significant. But that isn't why even the most sabermetrically-minded Phillies fans might be beginning to believe it might be true. They look at the .243 batting average the Phillies hitters have in 977 at-bats so far this year with runners in scoring position, ranking 14th in the National League despite ranking 4th in on-base percentage. If clutch hitting is just statistical noise, then Phillies hitting with runners in scoring position is the statistical equivalent of Agent Maxwell Smart's Cone of Silence. For a team to perform that poorly in the clutch is more than just bad luck. After 977 AB's, the luck should begin to sort itself out and the Phillies would be hitting much closer to their .261 batting average for the season overall.

It could be the manager that is the problem, or it could be the players as some have suggested. It's entirely possible, and even more likely, that the problems are both. It is too late for team general manager Ed Wade or team president David Montgomery to fix these issues for the 2004 season. If the Phillies are to make the playoffs, the team will have to overcome the issues without altering personnel, but by altering attitude and approach at the plate.

Same Old Story

2004-08-09T22:09:00.000-05:00

Monday night the Rockies managed to outscore the Phillies, 4-2 at Citizens Bank Park. Eric Milton turned in a good performance, surrendering only one run (a solo home run) in 7 innings while striking out 8 and walking only 2. Todd Jones, aquired at the trade deadline, has pitched well for the Phillies, but tonight was an exception. Jones took the loss, blowing a 2-1 lead in the 8th inning. Jones will get much of the attention for this loss, because he blew the lead late in the game, but the Phillies hitting should be labeled the real culprit, going 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position.

Poor hitting with runners in scoring position has been a well-chronicled problem since the season started. Lets take a look at the following season totals and rankings for the Phillies in the National League:

Runs Scored - 550, 4th
On-base % - .343, 4th
BA w/ RISP - .243, 14th
LOB - 873, 2nd worst

The Phillies have scored a fair number of runs this season, largely due to their large number of home runs, 147 (third in NL), a large percentage of which are solo home runs. But if the team would rank even middle of the pack in terms of batting average with runners in scoring position, their run total would be much higher, creating a larger run differential and therefore more of what really counts, wins.

Exorcism in Philly

2004-08-09T16:14:00.000-05:00

Paul Abbott - aka the Devil - is done in the Phillies rotation. The Phillies have announced a deal sending two minor leaguers and a player to be named later to the Reds for starter Cory Lidle.

While far from a blockbuster, and Lidle will never be confused with Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez, it does upgrade the starting rotation. Of course, placing a blind, three-legged mule on the mound in place of Abbott would have been an improvement too.

Throw out Abbott's April of 25.1 innings and a 3.20 ERA, and he had a 7.64 earned run average for the season. Terrible.

Lidle is far from an All-Star himself. He comes to Philly at 5.32 in 149 innings. He has managed to win seven games, however, compared to just three total wins by Abbott (only one with the Phillies). He has also managed to eat innings. Lidle averages over six innings per start and has tossed three complete games. Each of those came while the Reds were still in the race in the NL Central. Hopefully, getting back into a race will reinvigorate the 32 year-old righthander. Over the last two months, he is just 1-5 with an Abbott-esque 6.98 ERA. His last start, at Coors Field, was solid, too. He lasted six innings, allowing two earned runs and striking out six.

Abbott, meanwhile, averaged less than five innings a start, and had lasted six innings just once in his ten starts in Philly.

I meant to bring this up earlier in the year, but never got around to it. Did anyone see when Abbott was interviewed just after the Phils picked him up on the pregame or postgame show? He basically blasted the D-Rays for letting him go. They weren't going anywhere, and all he needed was time to work things out.

Well, the fact that they weren't going anywhere was exactly why the let you go. You're 36 and tossing watermelons up there. May as well see if any of the guys in Durham are any better. It was also just before Tampa Bay reeled off its 12-game win streak. Abbott was released on June 3. Tampa's streak started on June 9. From June 3 thru June 26, the D-Rays won 17 times in 20 contests.

We all hope his departure has the same effect on the Phightins.

This Just In

2004-08-09T16:07:00.000-05:00

Balls, Sticks, & Stuff has learned (via ESPN News via XM Radio) the phollowing phacts:

Pat Burrell will have season ending surgery on his hand.
The Phillies have acquired Corey Lidle in return for minor leaguers OF Javon Moran and LHP Joe Wilson and a third player to be named later.

This news is not good overall. Lidle will surely take Paul Abbott's place which may or may not be better, but certainly can't be worse. The news on Burrell is troublesome because the Phillies really needed his bat to get hot in an effort to make the playoffs.

There is also news that the injury bug is now thought to be contagious not only within rosters but across different sports as Jevon Kearse has sprained his ankle.

This also in, on a slightly lighter yet scarier note, Matt Damon is looking to get into porn.

Dziękuję

2004-08-09T13:24:00.000-05:00

It has recently come to our attention here at the Balls, Sticks, & Stuff home office in Glen Allen, Va., that BS & S has been visited by internet surfers in Poland. To those readers we say:

"Isc Phils! Palić się Bowa!"

The Evolution of a Baseball Fan

2004-08-09T10:45:00.000-05:00

Several posts ago I suggested readers of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff point their browsers to The Baseball Desert a baseball weblog by Iain Cash, an Englishman living in France and infatuated with baseball. To remind yourself why baseball is such a great game and why you enjoy it so much, read Mr. Cash's posts of November 17, 18, 19, 2003 and December 22 and 23, 2003. Among other things he reminds us how great a double play is and what MLB.tv means to those of us not able to access the games of our choice on television or radio.

Previewing the Colorodo Series

2004-08-09T09:31:00.000-05:00

A four-game series will start for the Phillies tonight against Colorado at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are 2-2 against the Rockies this year and have the good fortune of going against the Rocks without slugger Larry Walker, who was traded over the weekend to the Cardinals.

Eric Milton (12-2, 4.80 ERA) will be on the mound tonight against righthander Jamey Wright (1-0, 2.30). It will be Wright's fourth start of the year. For his career, Wright is 52-69 with a 5.11 ERA.

Tuesday night, Vicente Padilla (4-5, 4.07) will return from the disabled list to face lefthander Joe Kennedy (5-4, 3.95). The Phillies will need Padilla to get back to form quickly in order to make up for the loss of Kevin Millwood to the DL.

Randy Wolf (4-7, 4.04) will face righty Jason Jennings (10-9, 5.86) on Wednesday. Jennings had a great 2002 season for a Rockies starter, going 16-8 with a 4.52 but has struggled to regain that form since then.

The Rockies have penciled in lefthander Shawn Estes (12-4, 5.77) to face the Phillies on Thursday. The Phillies have yet to officially decide on a pitcher for the fourth game as the rotation is in a state of flux with Millwood and Padilla essentially trading places on the DL and in the rotation. However, if history is any indication the starter will be Paul Abbott.

A Tale of Two Road Trips

2004-08-09T08:45:00.000-05:00

Sunday night the Phillies finished up a 13-game road trip by beating the Dodgers 4-1. Brett Myers turned in a second consecutive performance worthy of his potential by surrenduring only two hits and two walks while striking out eight in eight innings. In recapping the game, Marcus Hayes of the Philadelphia Daily News points out that Myers had a dominating curveball, using it 30 times, missing the strike zone with the pitch only three times.

Technically speaking, it was only one road trip, but there were certainly two distinctly different segments to it as Todd Zolecki summarizes in the Philadelphia Inquirer:

They had just lost a Sunday game to the Chicago Cubs to drop to 1-6 on their 13-game, cross-country trip. It appeared that their manager needed a strong week on the West Coast to save his job. Fans cried foul because the Phillies didn't land an impact player before the trade deadline.

Then they swept the San Diego Padres.

And they won two of three against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, including yesterday's 4-1 victory behind Brett Myers' eight-inning two-hitter.

"Night and day," said first baseman Jim Thome, asked to compare the clubhouse in Chicago on Aug. 1 to the clubhouse in Los Angeles yesterday. "And for the good. For the good. Let's face it, baseball is a weird game. Sometimes you don't play very good, and sometimes you play well.
"When we left Chicago, coming out here we knew these two clubs were very good. We really stepped it up. In the end, it was a satisfying road trip considering where we started."

Satisfying may be stretching things a bit, however Mr. Thominator. The recent good play has quieted the talk of firing Larry Bowa and the criticisms of Ed Wade, the disappointment in the players has abated, but such negativity is sure to return if the Phillies cannot sustain their good play while at home and make some headway in the NL East Division and/or the NL's Fourth Division.

A Disturbing Trend

2004-08-08T14:42:00.000-05:00

Mike at A Citizen's Blog checks in with his regular sabermetric report on the Phillies batters. In the report, he mentions a disturbing trend: Jimmy Rollins has drawn one walk since July 23rd. Fortunately he has been able to get on base by putting the ball in play quite a bit over that time, but for a player whose sole job is to see some pitches and get on base, J-Roll will have to start using a better eye.

Enjoy the Moment

2004-08-08T14:12:00.000-05:00

Jayson Stark at ESPN.com hypothesizes on who will be the next pitchers to reach 300 wins. Stark takes twenty-eight of the games best pitchers and liberally gives them each 15 wins per year until their respective 40th birthdays. Not one reaches 300. The closest? C.C. Sabathia (age 24, so a lot of things have to go right for him to win 15/year for the next 16 years, just ask Greg Maddux himself).

Tom Glavine may represent the most realistic chance. He stands at 259 wins, but at age the age of 38 and on a mediocre team, he will need to make the most of every start.

We should enjoy this while it lasts because there is a very good chance we will not see another 300-win pitcher for several decades.

Maddux Records 300th Win

2004-08-08T13:39:00.000-05:00

Numerous stories can be found in numerous places about Greg Maddux notching his 300th victory on Saturday. One such story is written by Tom Candiotti on ESPN.com's Insider section. I find just about every article about Greg Maddux interesting, I admire his pitching style and the way he plays the game, but this article I found interesting for reasons other than baseball. In an aside, Candiotti mentions playing golf with Maddux, and not surprisingly, he plays golf similar to the way he plays baseball: average off the tee, great course management, keeps the ball in play, a great chipper and putter, and very competitive in nature.

Phillies Trades Revisited

2004-08-07T11:06:00.000-05:00

It is best to evaluate trades after larger sample sizes have been accumulated and the outcome of the season has been determined, but it is safe to say so far so good (ERA, IP, Opp. BA):

Felix Rodriguez - 0.00, 4.0, .214
Todd Jones - 0.00, 3.1, .250

Ed Wade had difficult factors to overcome leading up to the trade deadline, some internal and some external. Sure, snagging Carlos Beltran or Randy Johnson may have been a bit more glamourous, but one cannot deny that without Felix Rodriguez and Todd Jones stabilizing the bullpen through extra innings nail biters and early exits by starters due to injury, the 4-game win streak the Phillies are currently enjoying would not be possible.

The Glass is Still Half Full

2004-08-07T10:15:00.000-05:00

Some might view this post from yesterday as overly optimistic, and another point of view might be that it went to far out on a limb and set the Phillies up for a loss Friday night. But fortunately, the Phillies continued their win streak, tying their longest win streak of the year by beating Eric Gagne and the Dodgers in extra innings, 9-5. While the fatigued bullpen did not perform as well as it had in earlier games in the win streak (Tim Worrell blew a 1-run lead in the ninth, it was his fourth night in a row on the mound), it did manage to hold the Dodgers scoreless in the two extra frames.

A Phillies victory in Saturday's contest would be quite impressive, given that Phillies starter Paul Abbott rarely goes deep into games and the Phillies bullpen has been put into use considerably recently due to extra innings games and Kevin Millwood's premature departure Thursday night due to injury.

Reasons for optimism still exist - Phillies Fan makes the following comparison to 1980:

2004 Phillies: 57 - 52
2004 Braves: 61-47
1980 Expos: 61-47
1980 Phillies: 57-52

It is a bit premature to que "Celebrate" by Kool & the Gang, but it is reason for hope.

Walt Jocketty's Fantasy Baseball Team

2004-08-06T22:50:00.000-05:00

Before the season started, the general consensus was that Walt Jocketty, general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, had assembled a weak pitching staff for this year's campaign. If the offseason had been a fantasy baseball draft, Jocketty was the guy who takes Jeff Suppan in a middle round. Oh wait, Jocketty is the guy that took Jeff Suppan. And despite everyone's winks and smirks and disbelief (haven't we all at one time made a pick that illicited the awkward moment?), the pick has paid off as the Cardinals are 4th in the majors with a 3.83 ERA (Suppan is 9-6, 4.08).

But Jocketty's team isn't all pitching. The Cardinals have scored more runs (581) than any team in the National League that plays half its games at a reasonable altitude for baseball and have three players in the NL top 10 in RBI, HR, and OPS. But like any good first place fantasy owner, you can never stock your team too much and so today Jocketty did the real-life equivalent of picking up Larry Walker off the waiver wire for his team by picking up Larry Walker off the waiver wire for his team. The Cards everyday lineup will now look something like this:
________________________________________________
2B - Tony Womack (.345 OBP, 18 SB)
SS - Edgar Rentaria (.746 OPS, 42 K's in 402 AB's)
1B - Albert Pujols (1.046 OPS, 80 RBI)
3B - Scott Rolen (1.032 OPS, 97 RBI)
CF - Jim Edmonds (1.069 OPS, 79RBI)
RF - Larry Walker (Away .886 OPS 2001-2003, 1.289 in 41 'away' AB's 2004)
LF - Reggie Sanders (.770 OPS, 51 RBI, 88 G)
C - Mike Matheny/Yadier Molina (does it matter?)
________________________________________________

Most fantasy baseball teams stop playing at the end of September. Walt Jocketty is tweaking his for October.

Put Away the Green and White

2004-08-06T15:06:00.000-05:00

Sometimes during the course of a round of golf, you hit some crooked shots and try and fix them on the course, often to no avail. Following a glass of sweet tea or a beer in the grill after the round, you head, to the practice range and try and get to the bottom of those crooked shots, sure that there must be a quick fix. Wrong. Before you know what's happened, you can't get the ball airborne. I haven't consulted Bob Rotella on such matters, but I am positive that the best term for this is "paralysis by analysis" a state where you've lost all sense of objectivity and you are lost and rudderless. Then, hopefully, you have the sense to use someone else as "another set of eyes" so to speak, someone that knows what they are looking for in a swing, either a good amateur or a club pro. Inevitably, a quick fix is all that was needed, and you are back to hitting the ball the way you should.

What's the moral of the story? Sometimes a little objectivity can go a long way. In that light it was refreshing, initially, to read Scott Miller's column this morning on Sportsline.com. It's one of the few stories recently that has been presented about the Phillies from a non-Philadelphia based media outlet or the blogosPHere, and so therefore, it had a sense of objectivity to it - an outsider looking in and not rudderless and adrift in the same sea we who follow the Phillies are adrift in.

The majority of the piece was about the trials and tribulations of Larry Bowa and his Phillies. The injury bug is touched on, listing all of the significant players that have spend time on the disabled list. Many of the same player and manager quotes that we have heard time and gain were repeated for the sake of those who don't scan Philly.com for every last Phillies morsel. We see the Rheal Cormier "pins and needles" quote, the "relaxed' doesn't exist in Philadelphia" quote from Roberto Hernandez, and of course obligatory "I don't worry about it anymore" line from Bowa. But Miller then brings this train of thought together:

"Bottom line, here's the thing about the Phillies and their manager's temper: If the players collectively are too soft to handle Bowa day in and day out, is this unit really built for October, anyway?"

And if Miller had published these thoughts Monday or even yesterday, I might have gone right along with him, "He's right, this team has no heart, no soul, they aren't cut out for big things. Who cares if Bowa's a jerk, these guys can't come through when they need to." But he didn't, he published them today after the Phillies - with their backs firmly against the wall - had swept a good Padres team, a performance that had heart and soul. Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley, and Doug Glanville came through in the clutch repeatedly with good hitting and defense throughout the series and when Kevin Millwood went down to injury after just two innings Thursday night Brian Powell (of all people) came through with three good innings to bridge the gap to the more heralded members of the bullpen.

And so hopefully, like the hack that figures a way to straighten out his slice on his own despite seemingly unsurmountable paralysis by analysis, the Phillies are learning how to win before it is too late, injuries and bad clubhouse atmosphere be damned.

Is this sense of optimism too high? Possibly. An increasingly contagious injury bug and a surging Chicago Cubs team in the wild card race may just be too much to overcome. But if you prefer to see the glass as half full, you'll see that the upcoming Phillies opponents in August are some of the weaker teams in the league and Vicente Padilla will soon be back from the DL.

My bottom line: Don't get out your green and white just yet.

Some Dap for the Phils

2004-08-06T11:29:00.000-05:00

The Phightins just pulled off their first sweep in San Diego in 17 years, and it couldn't have come at a better time.

With the sweep, the Phils shaved two games in the Wild Card standings, and one in the NL East (do the Braves ever lose?). The Phillies now sit three and 4.5 games out in both races, respectively.

Byrd came up with a pair of huge plays in center to help the cause. That should help ease the sting of his first hitless effort since returning from Scranton.

The bullpen was big as well, surrendering just one run in eight innings of work. Heck, even Roberto Hernandez tossed a scoreless frame.

Unfortunately, the relievers were pressed into duty due to Kevin Millwood lasting only two innings due to elbow stiffness. Hopefully it's nothing serious.

Philly needs Randy Wolf to go deep into the game tomorrow night in the series opener against the Dodgers to save the tired arms in the pen.

The Phillies did get good news on another injured pitcher. Vicente Padilla made another rehab start at Scranton. He gave up a grand slam after an error, but things went according to plan otherwise. The team hopes to get him back for the August 10 game against Colorado. If Millwood is alright, that means after Saturday, we can all bid farewell to Paul Abbott.

Pat Burrell is on the DL with a wrist injury and the Phils are considering moving Chase Utley to the outfield if Pat the Bat is going to be sidelined for a long period of time. Utley has never played in the outfield, to the best of his recollection, but is open to the idea.

D.C. Back with L.B.

2004-08-06T00:38:00.001-05:00

It has to have been obvious since Larry Brown left Philly. You could see, despite all of the Pistons success, the coach getting the shakes from withdrawal. Now everything in the universe seems right again.

Larry Brown has been reunited with his favorite player, Derrick Coleman.

I mean who doesn't love a 6-10, 270-lb. forward who has topped .450 from the field once since 1992-93. When looking at a player's career stats, it's usually fairly obvious which season was shortened by strike. But if you're looking at DC and you don't know it was 1998-99, you'd never be able to figure it out. He rarely plays 50 games in a season. He's also scored in double figures just once in the last four years.

So why not trade for him, and oh, yeah, let's get a guaranteed season out of Amal McCaskill while we're at it. Even though he has as much chance at helping Detroit defend its title as you or I or Darko does.

Our Olympic coach has long had a fascination with Coleman. During his first stint with the Sixers, then-President Pat Croce got so fed up with Coleman's antics that he proclaimed that DC would never play for Philly as long as he was in charge. Unfortunately for Sixers fans, Croce left two years later. About 20 seconds later, the Round Mound of Frown was back in town.

When Brown left town last year, Sixer fans took solace in the fact that Coleman would soon follow. It's surprising it took as long as it did. It's also somewhat surprising DC didn't 'somehow' make his way onto the Olympic squad.

Brown got his man back and all it cost him was the 2002-03 Sixth Man of the Year, Corliss Williamson, and McCaskill - or $2 million, take your pick. That's roughly how much McCaskill is slated to make in the first - and guaranteed - year of a three-year deal. He was a free agent and for salary cap purposes Williamson for Coleman didn't work. So, Philly re-signed him according to league rules. At least three years, with at least one guaranteed season.

Now Brown gets to do to the Pistons what he did to the Sixers. Make them old. Somehow labeled a teacher of the game, Brown disdains young players. I dare anyone to name a player, other than A.I., who got his career going in Philly under Brown. Granted, Jerry Stackhouse, Larry Hughes, and Tim Thomas were the best he was given. But none was given more than a year to prove his worth. And all have started for several teams.

With DC in town, Brown now has a cast of underachievers in the frontcourt to ensure that Darko never becomes anything. Learn by example, rookie. Watch DC, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace show you how it's done. Even with the performance Wallace had last year for Detroit, he's still got the malcontent label across his forehead - one of the few places actually not occupied by body art.

The World Champs are now considerably older than they were a year ago, and not necessarily better. Just the way Brown likes it. At least he got Detroit a title.

Dipping into the Mailbag

2004-08-05T18:30:00.000-05:00

It has been a while since the first edition of the Balls, Sticks, & Stuff Mailbag, so let's take a peek inside the ol' inbox and see what's there...

To: ballssticksstuff@yahoo.com
From: larry.bowa@phillies.com
Subject: advice
Body: Hey, I've been reading your website and you seem fairly knowledgeable, I have no idea how you knew about the photos I have of Ed Wade. It's almost like he was doing "GM's Gone Wild!" You seem to be a little rough on me though, you'll probably end up writing for a newspaper in Vegas. Anyway, I was wondering, what lineup do you think I should use for tonight's game in San Diego? Sterling Hitchcock is going against us and I am going to be without the VP of my fan club, Pat Burrell for some time. Thanks, your buddy, L-Bo.

Hey Larry, thanks for thinking I might be able to contribute. Apparently you haven't read many of my posts...Anyway, it's funny you should ask, because, I've been thinking a bit about how the lineup should shake out. I think until Pat "Where's the Bat?" Burrell comes back, the lineup should look something like this versus lefties:

SS - J-Roll
2B - Polanco
RF - Abreu
1B - Thome
LF - Jason Michaels
3B - David Bell
C - Lieby
CF - Marlon Byrd

I realize that line-up bunches the lefties and righties together - something that has slightly irritated me all year when you don't put Burrell in between Abreu and Thome - but the most important thing is that Douggie Glanville is NOT in the lineup. Nothing against him, I would love to chat with him, he seems pretty sharp, but did you see the cut he took at that breaking ball last night? My brother Geoff said, "I came just as close to hitting that ball as he did and I am 3,000 miles away."

And against righties:

SS - J-Roll
2B - Polanco
RF - Abreu
1B - Thome
3B - David Bell
LF - Chase Utley
C - Lieby
CF - Marlon Byrd

With this lineup, you have David Bell splitting up Abreu, Thome, and Utley - all lefties, and besides, Bell hits right-handed pitchers decently (806 OPS). The other important thing to note is that Glanville is NOT in the starting lineup. I know he put the ball in play quite a bit last night, but I wouldn't press your luck.

To: ballssticksstuff@yahoo.com
From: adv@fyi-consumer.com
Subject: Nokia color screen phone at NO Cost
Body: Switch your carrier! Keep your number! We can help you! Get a FREE Nokia phone with a color screen from We Deliver Cellular dot com!

Wow, thanks, but I'll pass, but can you do me a favor and not send this email to Roberto Hernandez and Larry Bowa or Joe Kerrigan? I do not want the Phillies dugout calling the bullpen to get Roberto anymore than he already does (which is way too much) unless the Phils are up by 10 runs in the 9th inning. Thanks again.

USA Hoops

2004-08-04T15:43:00.000-05:00

If I can take a minute to pry myself away from the Phillies...

That was highly embarrassing yesterday. I was working when it happened and elected not to watch the late night replay on ESPN2 for fear of the nightmares it may cause. The Sports Guy has a great column on the problems with the team and I could not agree with him more.

Obviously there were problems with players not wanting to go due to security reasons. This took away several of the US's best players (Kidd, TMac, KG). One thing that I think may have been overlooked is the selection of the coach.

Larry Brown is NOT a good coach for international rules. A great defensive coach, he loathes the three so much that his teams rarely shoot them. With the zones played in international ball, plus the closer three-point line, where are the shooters?

This team has none. There isn't one player on the team that is a great shooter. LeBron, Carmelo and/or Wade may be someday, but these guys are just young pups.

The selection committee simply went out and tried to market the jerseys and whatever other trinkets they could think of by giving spots on the team to 'names' and guys with 'style points'.

Has Stephon Marbury ever played on a truly good team?

I just read on ESPN.com that before canning the game-winner against Germany earlier today, Allen Iverson had NEVER made a buzzer-beater to win a game. Not in high school, not as a Hoya, not as a Sixer. Does anyone else find that odd for someone who has taken soooooo many shots in his lifetime? He's also the only player on the team to have ever taken part in the three-point shootout during all-star weekend.

Since there are no shooters, Team USA must have decided we should just out-bang the rest of the world, right? Guess again.

No size on this team, either.

Duncan is the only proven inside player. Okafor is a banger, but is untested at this level. Lamar Odom is small, but thin. A good player to match up with some of the international Nowitzki's and so forth, but not an great inside guy. Boozer is an inside guy, but is he any less undersized than he is in the NBA. And you have to sort of doubt him after backing out on his handshake agreement with the Gunds (you have to think that even though he'll say all the right things, LeBron must be seething about him jumping ship). This team could certainly use a Brad Miller, as the Sports Guy suggests. Granted KG and either of the O'Neals could fix this as well.

Had everyone agreed to play, there would be no doubt about this squad. Shaq, Duncan and KG in the frontcourt and Ray Allen and Kidd in the backcourt. Add in Michael Redd (not even invited, but can flat out fill it from the outside), Bibby and Rip Hamilton (asked, but he wasn't even close to making the speed dial on the selection committee phones) on the bench. Miller to set screens and pass, then a couple guys to hustle and dive on the floor.

With all the superstars turning things down, the US was left with guys who don't necessarily buy into the team game and go with more of a 'what do i have to do to get on SportsCenter' mentality.

I'll go on to say that I think the US gets a bit of a wake up call from the last two days and Larry Brown gets them to play some tight D. But I think this team is not suited well for anything other than marketing purposes and brings home the silver.

Phillers

2004-08-04T14:50:00.000-05:00

As was reported in last night's game Geoff Geary was demoted to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in order to make room for Felix Rodriguez, who finally joined the team after the birth of his third child. Many phans are hoping Geary finds a day job...

...As a general rule, I try and avoid information such as this because I am usually disappointed to learn something I wish I hadn't. But in the case of the "Fund Watch" over at Your Thoughts Exactly, I can't help but be curious. There are a few leanings there that I would not have guessed...

...Speaking of Felix Rodriguez, he had this to say after coming to the Phillies from the San Francisco Giants: "The Giants are a good team. The Phillies are a good team. It's about the same." The same? Let's hope you never blow a lead in Philadelphia and find out just how different things really are. But, he certainly demonstrated that he has some sense of perspective, "I'm not worried about money. I grew up with nothing, and right now I'm living a better life."

...Originally, Balls, Sticks, & Stuff was going to contain matters of all kinds, commentary on sports...and other stuff too, just like it says in the header. I still intend for it to be that way, but the Phillies have taken a stranglehold on my focus with the recent dramatics of the trade deadline and "Fire Bowa" talk. For some reason, baseball lends itself much better to "blogging" than other areas of sport do, particularly golf. But recently I discovered two websites that manage to marry the two (blolfing? glogging?) nicely. The Legend of Blogger Vance and Grouchy Golf Observations are well worth the mouse clicks...

A Step in the Right Direction

2004-08-04T07:47:00.000-05:00

With Sunday's game being an afternoon game, the Phillies having Monday off, and Tuesday night's game against the Padres not starting until 10:05 EST, it seemed as if the Phillies had decided to not even finish the year. But instead, they decided to show up at PETCO Park in San Diego and give it one more try, which was a good idea, because they pulled out a win. Coupled with a Braves loss, the Phillies drew to within 4.5 games in the NL East and 4 in the Wild Card. Some notes from the game:

Brett Myers pitched a good game overall (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 0 BB) and got the "W". Its becoming more and more obvious that if Meyers can keep his pitches down, he is much more effective. After letting a run score in the bottom of the 4th, Joe Kerrigan and Mike Lieberthal had a meeting with Myers on the mound and thereafter, his pitches stayed down, hitters made weaker contact, and Myers was able to last through the 6th inning. From now on, the Phillies should fine him $500 for every pitch he throws above mid-thigh.

The youngsters came up big. Chase Utley and Marlon Byrd drove in key runs in the 7th. Utley's hit was as a pinch-hitter for Meyers and Byrd followed up his offense with a great diving catch into he bottom of the inning to kill a mini-rally by the Padres.

Harry Kalas and Chris Wheeler had a mini-feud over the accuracy of a radar gun reading. Remember when the biggest controversy regarding the Phillies was the quality of their relationship? Those were the days. Throughout the game Wheeler raved and gushed about San Diego. Think Kalas would like to see the Phillies charter leave without him? I know we would.

Placido Polanco had a rough night. In the 4th inning, he took a Sean Burroughs knee to the head while sliding into second while trying to break up a 6-5-3 double play (the Padres had the Thome-shift on). Polanco was able to stay in the game until he was hit in the forearm by a pitch two innings later, he was then replaced by Tomas Perez.

The new bullpen was put into use and Todd Jones and Felix Rodgriguez did their job, particularly Rodriguez (1 IP, 2K's using a great fastball). The old bullpen - Tim Worrell to close in the ninth - was a bit shaky, but got the job done.

"Paul Abbott is the Devil"

2004-08-03T15:18:00.000-05:00

I can only assume that would be Mama Boucher's opinion of him. And the more I see of him, the closer I become to agreeing with her.

When the Phils picked him up, I groaned. A castoff, and from Tampa? The worst pitching team in the majors (at the time)? What happened didn't Rick Helling, Joey Hamilton, Albie Lopez, Jason Bere, Charles Nagy, Jim Parque, Robert Person, John Burkett, Rick Reed, or Jose Rijo answer the phone when the Phils called? Couldn't they have dug up another Abbott? Jim? Kyle (I saw his only win, against the Rockies, in 1992 when he went 1-14)? Lou?

Then I got to thinking, hey, he won 17 games for the M's one year. Maybe he's not that bad. Over the last six weeks, I've come to realize that, no, he's not THAT bad. He's worse.

Checking his ESPN stat page, I noticed that it was only because it was on the 2001 Mariners juggernaut. His ERA was 4.25, reminiscent of Milton's 2004 run support induced record.

I'd like to take this time to apologize to Eric Milton for comparing him in any way, shape or form to the atrocity that is Paul Abbott. Now back to business...

Abbott has never posted an ERA under 4.22 in any season he's pitched 100 innings - which, by the way has only happened twice. He did put up a 3.10 in 72.2 IP in 1999, pitching mostly in relief. And he had an 11 inning stint in 1992, where he posted a 3.27, again pitching in relief.

Hello, Ken Howell, is that you? Pat Combs, are you there?

Next I noticed his K/BB for this year. I vomited a little in my mouth. 29 walks, 26 K's. I become slightly enraged. 14 home runs allowed in 42.1 IP. Think happy thoughts....

Surely, there's got to be something better in Scranton.

There's not, and stop calling me Shirley.

A quick inspection of that rotation turns up top prospect Gavin Floyd - yet to deliver a AAA pitch - Robert Ellis, Ed Yarnell, Clay Condrey and a combination of David Coggin and Franklin Perez. Let's take a look at this Ellis fellow's numbers. He's got a 2.83 ERA and just eight walks in 70 innings. Hmmm. Oh, he's 33 - just three years younger than Abbott. Yarnell is a former Yankee prospect who fizzled. He's 28 and has walked 45 in 91 IP. Condrey, well, I'm not sure he could strike me out. Let's just say it's somewhat surprising he actually gets paid.

That leaves Floyd and Coggin. Coggin could probably do better than Abbott. You would have to hope so. Floyd, is he ready? Do you want to throw him into a pennant race as a 21-year-old rookie and tell him to save your season? A pennant race - which is almost laughable at this point - is not necessarily the place to cut your teeth. Josh Hancock got some starting work before getting shipped to Cincinnati, why wasn't he given a shot? Even Ellis, the career minor leaguer he is, may have been worth a shot.

The only reason I can think of is that Abbott must have found the same pictures of Bowa or someone in the front office that Doug Glanville has used to keep getting PT.

Tyler Green, help. Where's Ben Rivera when you need him?