Balls, Sticks, & Stuff
10/13/2004
 
Phillies Net Win Shares Value
Curious to know which Phillie was the biggest drain on the team's payroll? Interested to know which Phillie was the best bargain Ed Wade managed to obtain? If so, the folks at The Hardball Times have developed a tool called the Net Win Shares Value Calculator. According to THT:
Net Win Shares Value is an estimate of how much a player was worth, given his contribution to the team's wins and the conditions under which he signed his contract (free agent, arbitration, etc.). A positive amount means he contributed more value (performance per dollar paid) than the average player in his category, and a negative amount indicates that he delivered below-average value for his contract.
The authors plan on publishing their data in the The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual in a few weeks, but who has the patience to wait a couple of weeks?

Here are the "particulars", copied from the THT output (salary data from Baseball/Sports Weekly/USA Today and ESPN.com...players are listed in order of overall WS):

Bobby Abreu's Net Win Share Value is $ 8,894,744
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 37
Win Shares Above Replacement: 22.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 12
Salary: $ 10,600,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 19,494,744

Jimmy Rollins's Net Win Share Value is $ 6,945,044
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 25
Win Shares Above Replacement: 10.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 2,425,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 9,370,044

Jim Thome's Net Win Share Value is $ -3,429,417
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 22
Win Shares Above Replacement: 10.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 14
Salary: $ 12,166,667
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 8,737,250

David Bell's Net Win Share Value is $ 2,649,800
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 20
Win Shares Above Replacement: 8.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 5
Salary: $ 4,400,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 7,049,800

Placido Polanco's Net Win Share Value is $ 1,201,419
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 17
Win Shares Above Replacement: 5.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 4
Salary: $ 3,950,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 5,151,419

Pat Burrell's Net Win Share Value is $ -153,238
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 15
Win Shares Above Replacement: 4.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 5
Salary: $ 4,250,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 4,096,763

Jason Michaels's Net Win Share Value is $ 3,550,831
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 11
Win Shares Above Replacement: 4.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 335,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 3,885,831

Ryan Madson's Net Win Share Value is $ 5,062,350
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 9
Win Shares Above Replacement: 6.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 300,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 5,362,350

Mike Lieberthal's Net Win Share Value is $ -8,465,588
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 9
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 9
Salary: $ 7,500,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -965,588

Billy Wagner's Net Win Share Value is $ -4,114,169
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 8
Win Shares Above Replacement: 4.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 9
Salary: $ 8,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 3,885,831

Chase Utley's Net Win Share Value is $ 2,420,244
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 8
Win Shares Above Replacement: 2.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): -0
Salary: $ 200,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 2,620,244

Eric Milton's Net Win Share Value is $ -8,278,138
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 8
Win Shares Above Replacement: 0.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 10
Salary: $ 9,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 721,863

Rheal Cormier's Net Win Share Value is $ -590,688
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 7
Win Shares Above Replacement: 2.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 3,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 2,409,313

Tim Worrell's Net Win Share Value is $ -973,481
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 7
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 2,750,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,776,519

Randy Wolf's Net Win Share Value is $ -1,965,688
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 7
Win Shares Above Replacement: 2.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 5
Salary: $ 4,375,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 2,409,313

Marlon Byrd's Net Win Share Value is $ -1,320,588
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 6
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 355,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -965,588

Corey Lidle's Net Win Share Value is $ 276,519
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 1,500,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,776,519

Todd Pratt's Net Win Share Value is $ 268,725
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 875,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,143,725

Tomas Perez's Net Win Share Value is $ -239,069
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: 0.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 750,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 510,931

Vicente Padilla's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,721,863
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: -0.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 3
Salary: $ 2,600,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -121,863

Kevin Millwood's Net Win Share Value is $ -11,754,656
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 4
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 13
Salary: $ 11,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -754,656

Brett Myers's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,593,175
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 3
Win Shares Above Replacement: -3.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 362,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -2,231,175

Felix Rodriguez's Net Win Share Value is $ 354,656
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 2
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 1,000,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,354,656

Gavin Floyd's Net Win Share Value is $ 1,254,656
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 2
Win Shares Above Replacement: 1.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): -0
Salary: $ 100,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 1,354,656

Amaury Telemaco's Net Win Share Value is $ -435,931
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 2
Win Shares Above Replacement: -0.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 525,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 89,069

Ryan Howard's Net Win Share Value is $ 210,931
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: 0.3
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 300,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ 510,931

Todd Jones's Net Win Share Value is $ -271,863
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: -0.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): -0
Salary: $ 150,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -121,863

Roberto Hernandez's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,137,450
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: -2.0
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 1
Salary: $ 750,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -1,387,450

Doug Glanville's Net Win Share Value is $ -2,570,244
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 1
Win Shares Above Replacement: -2.8
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 550,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -2,020,244

Paul Abbott's Net Win Share Value is $ -1,565,588
The Particulars:
Contract Status: Include All Contracts
Win Shares: 0
Win Shares Above Replacement: -1.5
Expected WSAR (based on Salary): 0
Salary: $ 600,000
Expected Salary (based on performance): $ -965,588

Fine Print: The salaries of Lidle, Utley, Rodriguez, Jones, and Floyd were prorated to reflect the actual time spent on the Phillies roster. Player values were compared to "all contracts" so as to compare to the market as a whole, rather than just against other free agents or arbitration eligible players. Obviously some players have been left out, but all of the regulars and semi-regulars are here, and I do have a day job that comes first and a golf game that comes second (pretty much).
I think the trend here is that the hitters, in general, performed very well and the pitchers underperformed in relation to market value. Best bargain? Despite having one the largest salaries on the team, Bobby Abreu was still the best bargain. Kevin Millwood, on the other hand, was a colossal waste of team resources.

Does anyone know the janitor at the Phillies' Clearwater facility? I'd like to have him slip this onto the desk of Ed Wade.
- posted by Tom G. @ 10/13/2004 02:40:00 PM


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